Nearly 19.2 million people in Afghanistan, or 38% of the population, may face acute food insecurity during the winter between November 2026 and April 2027. The warning was issued by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the UN World Food Programme.
The forecast is worse than that for the same period a year earlier, when the number of people affected was expected to be 17.4 million. Around 5 million people will be in the emergency hunger phase, defined as IPC Phase 4. This is twice as many as projected for the April–September 2026 period.
The worst outlooks are for the provinces of Badakhshan, Badghis, Daykundi, Ghor, Samangan, Sar-e Pol and the rural areas of Ghazni. According to the latest IPC analysis, more than 15.9 million people are already facing crisis-level or worse food insecurity.
A better harvest does not solve the problem
Improved rainfall in 2026 has supported agricultural production and the recovery of pastures. This, however, does not mean that food is accessible to everyone. High unemployment, rising food and transport prices, and low incomes leave many families unable to buy nutritious food.
As winter approaches, opportunities for agricultural and construction work decline. As a result, household incomes shrink precisely when access to remote communities becomes more difficult. The return of more than 1.2 million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan this year is adding further pressure.
“Hunger and malnutrition are tightening their grip on families in Afghanistan, pushing more and more people to the brink at a time when response resources are dwindling,” said John Aylieff, the World Food Programme’s country director in Afghanistan.
Millions of children are at risk
The crisis is affecting children and women particularly severely. According to the IPC, around 4.04 million children aged 6 to 59 months may need treatment for acute malnutrition in 2027. One-quarter of the cases are expected to be severe and life-threatening.
Humanitarian organizations warn that nutrition and medical programs are failing to expand at the pace of growing needs. Declining funding is already limiting the reach of aid.
The World Food Programme says it needs $540 million by January 2027 to continue delivering food and nutrition supplies. With current resources, the organization reaches around 2 million people a month, compared with 4 million Afghans it assisted last winter.
FAO and the World Food Programme are calling for aid to be increased before snow and winter conditions make it more difficult to access vulnerable communities and before farmers miss key planting deadlines.
Sources: bernama.com, tolonews.com