Ukraine is threatened with significant territorial losses by the end of the year - this is stated in a pessimistic report by the German intelligence services, which Die Welt discusses today.
The publication refers to the assessment available to the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sontagszeitung" (F.A.S.), and which paints an increasingly gloomy general picture for Ukraine as a result of Russian superiority.
Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU) sees pessimism in this, while Ralf Stegner (SDP) believes that his assessment has been confirmed. The new, pessimistic picture of the situation from Western intelligence services regarding the war in Ukraine was received partly with approval and partly with skepticism by German MPs.
Roderich Kisevetter (CDU), deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee for the control of intelligence services, confirms that Ukraine has problems with ammunition and mobilization. However, he also stated that currently "pessimistic images of the situation are being circulated", apparently with the aim "to suggest that the situation is hopeless and that military support is no longer useful". The goal is "subtle but cruel" to put pressure on Kiev to "cede territory".
SDP deputy Ralf Stegner, who is also a member of the commission, said that "essentially" the service assessment is correct and matches what it knows.
Gaining time - by ceding territories? Die Welt?
questions this approach
The intelligence assessment states that Kiev is not expected to be able to "regain the initiative" by 2024. By the end of the year, Ukraine is also likely to suffer "significantly greater territorial losses" than in the months after January.
The report notes that Russian artillery is significantly stronger than that of the Ukrainians, and Russia has been able to "compensate" your losses. On the other hand, Kiev is unable to mobilize enough new soldiers to compensate for losses and build up reserves. The new mobilization rules will "take effect only at the end of the summer" and because recruits must first be trained.
According to this assessment, Ukraine's expected territorial losses are a consequence of the current "defensive orientation of the Ukrainian armed forces and the related delayed actions". Ukraine seeks to save personnel and is currently "gaining time by giving up territories". Kiev hopes to buy time to mobilize and rebuild its own military-industrial complex. However, Russia's airstrikes specifically on the military-industrial complex can become a problem.
Kieseweter commented on this assessment, saying that Ukraine can continue to win, but any delay in support from Germany and other countries will make it more difficult and lead to more losses.
The narrative of the hopelessness of resistance can only be overcome if Chancellor Olaf Scholz's slogan that Ukraine will be aided "as long as necessary" is replaced with an "all in the game" approach. For example, Ukraine being allowed to attack with Western weapons Russian "production facilities", "warehouses" and "storage locations" in Russia itself. The red lines were supposed to disappear and the production of weapons was to be stimulated.
Die Welt recalls that Anton Hofreiter (Greens) also recently called for Ukraine to be allowed to use Western weapons to attack targets on Russian territory. He also called for the creation of a European defense fund of 500 billion euros.