The Russian army has recently advanced significantly faster than it has in all of 2023, and has not given up on its intentions to capture all of Donetsk Oblast. The Russian advance near Vaghledar and Velika Novoselka is actually proof that the war in Ukraine has not reached a stalemate, and the front line, especially in the Donetsk region, is becoming variable.
The Russian advance is the result of identifying and tactically exploiting vulnerabilities on the Ukrainian front line. From autumn 2024 Russian troops are making a gradual tactical advance in Southeastern Ukraine.
However, ISW notes that Russian forces are far from the operational agility of the first months of a full-scale Russian invasion, and current Russian tactical advances, albeit faster than the trench warfare months of 2023. and the beginning of 2024, is far from the goals of capturing the Donetsk region.
The Russian military has been able to use the capture of Vaghledar for further offensive operations in the western parts of Donetsk Oblast, and the ISW again admits the error of previous assessments of the front, in which it believed that this area could not be turned into a strategic advantage.
The advance of Russian troops towards Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, Vaghledar and Velika Novoselka gives the Russian military command several options that it can try to implement in the coming weeks and months
Russian military commanders appear to be simultaneously trying to encircle Velika Novoselka while closing pockets of Ukrainian forces north and south of Kurakhovo. Russian troops are also conducting support operations to improve the geometry of the battlefield in the southern part of the Donetsk region in order to reduce threats to the flanks of Russian troops.
Thus, Russian troops are also advancing towards Andreevka with the aim of straightening the front line, and by closing the pocket north of Kurakhovo, they will threaten the Ukrainian escape routes.
However, which of these targets the Russian command will set itself is still unknown, or at least it is not apparent at this stage of the front line. However, it is not known to what extent the Russian army has prepared for the use of opportunities in this section of the front, as well as the resistance that the Ukrainian army will offer.
ISW analysts suggest that Russian military commanders are likely planning how to advance into the southeastern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in support of Russia's long-held goal of capturing all of Donetsk Oblast. This likely includes ground operations in the southern and eastern parts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to disrupt Ukrainian land lines of communication.
In any case, the priority of the Russian command in the Donetsk region remains unchanged until the end of 2024. to capture Pokrovsk, as well as in accordance with Russia's desire for a complete capture of the Donetsk region and a complete surrender of Ukraine with the destruction of its independence and territorial sovereignty.