Will a government be formed of the far-right "National sum" in France or does President Macron have options to take matters into his own hands? What are the options before France? The most important questions and answers.
In the first round of early parliamentary elections in France, the far-right “National Assembly” received the largest number of votes. The final distribution of seats in the National Assembly will become clear after the second round, which will take place on July 7. What does this mean for the governance of the republic? Here are the most important questions and answers.
Who will Macron appoint as prime minister after the election?
The French constitution does not impose restrictions on the president in choosing and appointing a prime minister – but still he must bear in mind the balance of power in Parliament. If the prime minister lacks parliamentary support, the National Assembly can vote no confidence in him, after which the government must submit its resignation to the president.
If “The National Assembly” gets a majority in the National Assembly, President Macron will have to appoint party leader Jordan Bardela as Prime Minister. There is no alternative, says France expert Hans Stark from the Sorbonne. “Macron is very weakened – he doesn't have many options.“
The 28-year-old Bardella, however, announces that only with an absolute majority in the parliament will he take over the responsibility for management – otherwise he would not be able to implement his political program. With the appointment of Bardella as prime minister, France would enter the fourth “cohabitation” (coexistence of different political forces in management – p.ed.) in its history.
How does “cohabitation“ work?
When the president and the prime minister are from different political camps, the executive power in France is divided. In “cohabitation” the president is forced (for the good of the country) to cooperate with forces that have a different political orientation than his own.
The first “cohabitation“ it became a fact in 1986 during the administration of Socialist President François Mitterrand. After the lost parliamentary elections, he first appointed the Gaullist Jacques Chirac as prime minister, and seven years later his fellow party member Édouard Balladur.
From 1997 to 2022, Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin worked under conservative President Jacques Chirac. The division of power between two different political camps usually leads to great friction. And decision-making processes are often complicated and delayed. The successful “cohabitation“ governance depends to a large extent on the extent to which the Prime Minister and the President can cooperate.
How much does the government's voice weigh in “cohabitation”?
In “cohabitation” some of the functions of the President are temporarily transferred to the Prime Minister. That is, not Macron, but the new prime minister will determine the main political line. In domestic policy, the government will have great powers, while in foreign and security policy, it will share power with the president, who is responsible for international relations.
Before the first round of the elections, Marine Le Pen explained how her “National Assembly” imagines the division of power: “For the president, the title of supreme commander of the armed forces is honorary, since the prime minister is the one who pulls the strings”. Domestic political and economic issues can also lead to struggles for supremacy between the president and the prime minister, as the first “cohabitation“ in Mitterrand's time.
On the national holiday of July 14, 1986, the president publicly announced that he would not sign Chirac's government decrees for the reprivatization of 65 nationalized banks, insurance companies, and industrial enterprises. Without his signature, no government decree could be implemented. But Mitterrand's refusal ultimately only delayed the government's intentions without stopping them entirely.
Could Macron and Bardella work together?
President Macron rejects parts of the “National Assembly” program. Analyst Hans Stark suggests that the far-right may try to “back Macron into a corner until he finally resigns”.
The total blockade of a government of the “National Front” however, it is unthinkable – Macron and Bardella will have to make compromises. If the president rejects projects of the new government, he will have to argue. And it is possible to turn more often to the Constitutional Council for the verification of laws even before they are published. Thus, some of the projects of the far-right government may be dropped at this stage.
What will happen if the extreme right does not get an absolute majority?
Expert Hans Stark believes that Bardella will not back down from his words and the “National Front” will refuse to form a government if the party does not have an absolute majority, even if it is the largest political force in the parliament. If no other camp succeeds in forming a majority, the republic will self-block. But in this case, the president could not order a new dissolution of the parliament, because according to the constitution, at least one year should have passed since the last dissolution of the parliament.
Even at the beginning of June, the parties from the presidential camp in the parliament dissolved by Macron had only a relative majority. As a result, his government had to repeatedly resort to Article 49.3 of the French Constitution for important laws. It allows the cabinet to pass laws without a vote in the National Assembly. But on one condition – if a vote of no confidence has not been submitted and accepted within 24 hours.
However, this article of the Constitution is highly contested. And it is not very likely that a new “cohabitation“ government to want to rule from the beginning of its mandate with his help. On the other hand, Macron could not be forced to resign, but it is not excluded that an independent expert government will be formed.
What is the probability that the president will take matters into his own hands?
If there is a deadlock, President Emmanuel Macron could trigger Article 16 of the French Constitution. It gives him extraordinary powers in crisis situations for the sake of stability in the state. In this situation, the president could issue laws and decrees without the approval of the parliament. But expert Hans Stark does not believe Article 16 is a real option for Macron.
„I can't imagine he would have lasted three whole years – until the next presidential election. In essence, this would mean being in a permanent crisis.“