Russian President Vladimir Putin said that with the offensive in the Kursk region, Ukraine aims to destabilize Russia, while Kiev, for its part, does not rush to announce the goals of the operation all at once and illuminates them gradually. Analysts are of the opinion that the offensive has definitely caught Moscow off guard, but it is not clear whether Ukrainian forces have the potential to hold the positions they have taken.
In a briefing on Monday, broadcast live on state television, Putin said that with the offensive in the Kursk region, Ukraine aims to destabilize the situation in Russia, but added that Kiev will not be able to achieve this, according to Reuters.
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„The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are increasing at a dramatic rate, including among some of the most combat-capable units (of the AFU), which the enemy is transferring to our border,”, he said during the meeting in which governors of regions and representatives of law enforcement agencies also participated.
„The enemy will certainly receive an appropriate response, and all the goals we set for ourselves will without any doubt be fulfilled,”, Putin pointed out.
The Russian leader said Ukraine appeared to be trying to secure a more favorable position from which to enter any peace talks, but added that such talks could not be conducted with an enemy he said was attacking civilians during his operation in the Kursk region.
According to Putin, another goal of Kiev is to slow the advance of the Russian army on other parts of the front where Moscow's forces are on the offensive.
Ukraine has so far not revealed what the main strategic plan of the operation is, which caught Russia off guard at a time when Moscow's troops were slowly but gradually advancing in eastern Ukraine, notes Reuters.
Putin's remarks on Monday were his most extensive response on the subject since Kiev launched its surprise offensive on August 6.
The Russian leader's statement seemed to aim to show that he is in control of the situation and to instill confidence in the troops and the country that the Ukrainian action will fail.
But Putin warned the representatives of the Russian authorities to prepare for a worsening of the situation before it can improve.
„The enemy will continue to try to destabilize the situation in the border area in order to shake the political situation in our country as well,”, the Russian leader said, reacting to the report of the governor of another border region, Bryansk region. “So if today the situation in Bryansk region is calm, it does not mean that it will be like that tomorrow.“
At the same meeting, the governor of Kursk Oblast said that Ukraine controls 28 settlements there and that its troops have entered 12 km into Russian territory.
Reported battlefield situation cannot be independently verified.
A NEW STAGE IN THE WAR
The surprise entry of Ukrainian units into Russian soil from the Sumy region of northeastern Ukraine is a tactic that marks a new stage in the war nearly 900 days after it began, as it moves the fighting onto Russian soil, the Associated Press notes. The US and Western allies, which supply Kiev with weapons, have so far refrained from commenting further on the Ukrainian incursion. American officials have said that the invasion of the Kursk region is an operation in which the use of Washington-supplied weapons is permissible because it does not violate international law.
According to some analysts, Kiev's action in the Kursk region is a firework that will quickly go out, but according to others, this may be the beginning of very targeted and planned actions to capture Kursk and the local nuclear power plant. Given that the strategic plan of the Ukrainian generals is not entirely clear, it remains a mystery what Ukraine plans to do with the territory it controls in Russia and what it will use it for.
Yesterday, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified only at a press conference that Kiev does not want these territories and does not intend to annex them.
On Thursday, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said the attack on the border region “will make Russia realize that the war is slowly and steadily creeping towards its territory”. He added that the operation would enable Kiev to enter from a more advantageous position in possible peace negotiations with Moscow.
„How could we pressure them and get something out of them in case a negotiation process starts? Only if we make sure that the war does not develop according to their scenario”, said the Ukrainian presidential adviser.
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE
For now, the negotiating positions of Russia and Ukraine seem irreconcilably far apart. Putin wants Ukraine to capitulate, and Kiev – Russian forces to leave the territory of Ukraine.
Both sides are looking for a way to take maximum advantage of the battlefield situation so that they can then dictate as much as possible the terms of any peace negotiations.
For Putin, it appears to be welcome to maintain a simmering conflict with a low intensity of hostilities, which will gradually dull the West's willingness to provide Ukraine with billions of dollars in military aid, notes the Associated Press.
Zelensky resents having his hands tied: At the NATO summit in July, he said Ukraine could not win the war unless the US lifted its restrictions on the use of weapons it provides to Kiev, so that it can be used against any targets on the territory of Russia, which Ukraine considers appropriate to be struck.
Against this backdrop, the US presidential election in November looms on the horizon, the outcome of which will undoubtedly have an impact on the war, and a new global summit to settle the conflict is looming, which is currently in the process of preparation and to which, unlike the first in June, Russia can be invited this time.
According to analysts, there are factors that suggest that it is still possible in the not-so-distant future to reach a diplomatic breakthrough to find a solution to the war in Ukraine. Such are, for example, the established stalemate on the battlefield, international political events (such as the US elections – ed.), the likelihood of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and possibly the fate of Western support for Ukraine, Charles Kupchan believes. expert from the Council on International Relations, an American think tank.
„I think we are heading towards some lasting diplomatic experience” to end the war, he said.
Mathieu Bouleg, an expert from another well-known think tank, “Chatham House”, does not share this opinion.
According to him, the war has not yet reached the turning point that suggests the achievement of peace. “Until the two sides exhaust their military and offensive potential, they will continue to fight”, Bouleg said.
UKRAINE CONTROLS ABOUT 1000 SQUARE KM OF RUSSIAN TERRITORY
Ukraine controlled at least 800 square kilometers of territory in Kursk Oblast as of early this week, according to an AFP analysis based on data provided by the Institute for the Study of War. The Washington think tank is one of the organizations that publishes almost daily information about the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.
On Monday, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Oleksandr Sirsky, released data similar to the assessment of AFP. He said in a video message on social networks that Ukraine controls territory in the Kursk region with an area of about 1,000 square km, and added that Kiev's forces are continuing their “offensive operations”.
Zelensky, for his part, commented that the offensive was a question purely and simply of guaranteeing the security of Ukraine, since the areas captured by the Ukrainian army are those from which “Russia has carried out attacks against the neighboring Ukrainian Sumy region”.
Yesterday, his advisor Podolyak made a new statement in which he spoke in a similar vein to Zelensky and indicated that one of the objectives of the operation was to destroy Russia's military infrastructure along the border and create a buffer zone to protect against attacks from that region . Podoliak added that Moscow should be forced to sit at the negotiating table, because otherwise, according to him, it would not do it on its own.
Ukraine's offensive in the Kursk region is the largest attack on Russian soil since the Second World War, France Press notes. According to the authorities in Russia, more than 120,000 people have been evacuated due to the fighting. Zelensky announced yesterday that Ukraine controls 74 settlements in the Kursk region.