Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? The US will abandon Europe no matter who wins the White House

The US will abandon Europe no matter who wins the elections – Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Bloomberg columnist Andreas Kluth writes about this.

All scenarios for leaving Europe are "ugly", says the author after talks with American experts. "The question of separation is this: not if it will happen, but when and how it will happen.“

According to Kluth, the geopolitical divide between the US and Europe is deepening. The main reason is that, in the context of constant budget crises and growing national debt, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the United States to control various regions of the world. And it will be necessary to set priorities.

"Beginning with President Barack Obama, American leaders have sought a "pivot" to the Indo-Pacific region, where they see greater geopolitical threats and core strategic interests – mainly around China”, the article says.

Trump may, if he wins, withdraw US troops from Germany, as he has already promised, and withdraw from NATO altogether. But Kamala Harris is also surrounded by advisers "who have distanced themselves from the post-war credo of hegemonic internationalism”. Therefore, if Kamala wins, there will still be "restraint” towards Europe (though not Trump-level isolationism).

Experts at the Stimson Center in Washington, who analyze scenarios for future US-European relations, say Harris would be vocal about her commitment to Europe. "But, like Trump, she may be forced to leave the continent due to unforeseen circumstances”, analysts predict.

"This can happen quickly: for example, if China invades Taiwan, there will be a major war in Asia, and the US will have to move troops, weapons, ammunition, ships, planes and everything else into the Pacific overnight. Or slowly: A financial crisis could erupt in the United States, forcing Washington to economize on its troops abroad; if Asia remains a priority, cuts will hit Europe and gradually lead to a "empty" of NATO“, the article says.

If Trump wins and commits "terrible for Europe” rapid withdrawal of troops, then the northern and eastern countries of the continent will try to enter into bilateral security agreements with the United States. The most likely candidate is Poland.

But bidding for the right to become a military partner of the United States "would put the remnants of NATO and the European Union at risk”.

"Already fragmented, these continental institutions will disintegrate into many mini-alliances and middling armies, each weak in its own way and unable to coordinate its actions with the others. Bottles of champagne will be opened in the Kremlin”, Klut paints a scenario after the likely arrival of Trump.

But "the slow destruction of the transatlantic alliance caused by the American financial crisis (or something similar) will not be fun either”. The author believes that the EU will not be able to create its own unified army, since the gradual deterioration of the situation will be perceived differently by different EU countries.

"Portugal is not so afraid of the Kremlin, and Estonia is not afraid of anything as much as the Kremlin,” explains Kluth.

"Great countries like Germany will not be willing to sacrifice their bloated social security systems for military preparedness. The French (and non-EU Brits) will talk tough, but won't open their own (and small) nuclear umbrellas over their European allies. The Kremlin will enjoy this show and bide its time, just as Napoleon watched the collapse of the Holy Roman Empire before liquidating it, the article says.