The big price increase was at the end of 2022 and in 2023, after the pandemic and the start of the war, and is not directly related to the euro. This was stated on the air of "Hello, Bulgaria" by Petar Ganev, senior analyst at the Institute for Market Economics.
"From 2020 to 2025, the accumulated inflation is over 40%. For some foods and restaurants, we are talking about an increase of even over 80% in 5-6 years," he pointed out.
Currently, according to him, inflation is significantly lower. "We are not in a situation with 20% inflation now. We are talking about about 5-5.5%. The expectation is that this level will remain, without any serious additional effect from the introduction of the euro," the analyst said.
He noted that inflation in the region is similar, regardless of the currency.
Regionally, inflation is the same – in both Serbia and North Macedonia. In Romania, it is even double due to greater budget problems. This shows that not everything is a matter of the eurozone, but of market and structural factors, explained Ganev.
According to him, for some foods, stabilization or a decrease in prices can even be expected if market mechanisms work effectively. According to senior analyst at the Institute for Market Economics Petar Ganev, a significant change is occurring in macroeconomic terms.
"The macrostructure of our entire monetary policy is changing. It is good to say clearly – 28 years of currency board, undoubtedly the most successful reform of the entire transition, is over. As we say – the euro began, the board ended. It fulfilled its function", said Petar Ganev.
He recalled that over the years the topic of the lev-euro exchange rate has often given rise to speculation and fears. "There were constant talks – is the exchange rate overvalued, is it undervalued, will it be changed at the last minute? All these fears have subsided. It has remained the same for 28 years and in the end we are entering the eurozone in exactly this way", he said.
According to him, the eurozone brings clear positives for the country's assessment. "There is no longer any currency risk, the external debt is in your own currency. But the assessments also include negatives - the ongoing political instability and the problems with the budget procedure. We have entered four of the last five years without an adopted budget", he emphasized.
In terms of income, the analyst noted that Bulgaria is gradually approaching the countries of Central Europe.