The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, but is this a surprise, or is there a lot of history and religion behind it... Is Iran's nuclear program the only goal, or is there something else, because the US has relocated several warships near Tehran… Arabist and international analyst Prof. Vladimir Chukov speaks to FACTI.
- Prof. Chukov, where is the world heading. Israel vs. “Hamas“, Israel vs. Iran… Why is all this happening?
- Israel vs. “Hezbollah“, I would add. Let's say that the Middle East has always been a springboard for war, a powder keg, in which there is an enormous amount of history involved, a lot of religion, a lot of politics, if you will, a lot of demography. Unfortunately, a lot of radicalism. I am currently writing a book about Muslim brothers, about refugees whose ultimate goal is to come to Europe - to the Promised Land.
- What is more important these days to see an actual military conflict between Israel and Iran. Is Tehran's nuclear program the only reason?
- It is not just the nuclear program. My thesis is that the tension between these two countries began back in 1979 with the victory of the Islamic revolution, when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi fell from power. This is how the doctrine of the destruction of the state of Israel was formed in Iran. At that time, Iran also began to accelerate its nuclear program. The basis of the Constitution of Iran, knowing its foreign policy ambitions, is to regain control over Jerusalem. We can even go back in time - after 1967, when Israel captured the eastern part of Jerusalem and declared the city the sole and original capital of the state of Israel. Thus, in fact, a situation has arisen that very much resembles the 12th century, but already refracted through the specific conditions of our 20th century and the perspective of the 21st century. We - Europeans, it is very difficult for us to understand certain processes that are developing in the Middle East, because we have a 1789 - the Great French Revolution, which removes religion from our lives, from education, from social life, from politics.
- And isn't it the same in Iran…
- The closer you are to Jerusalem, the more religion influences political decision-making, the more religion influences the mechanism and work of the political system, which is the institutionalized state. This is thanks to this Islamic Revolution. This is how Israel has become a bridgehead, a center of conflict between very strong religious circles, which have a very strong imprint on decision-making. I also talk about this in my book about the conflict between evangelicalism and Jaaferism. You know that in the USA there are large evangelical communities that influence US decisions. This also explains the genetic connection between the USA and Israel through economic lobbies, through banking lobbies. In fact, it is precisely religion that is unbreakable, which turns Israel into the 51st state of the USA. This is strongly expressed when the Republican Party is in power. Here, let's look at Donald Trump - especially in his first term. On the other side now in the Israel - Iran conflict, we have an Islamic Republic that wants to destroy, to annihilate the state of Israel. Here we already have a pronounced form of messianism, of certain Christian circles in Europe such as the Holy See, which views the state of Israel as the guardian of the Holy Sepulcher. And on the other side we have an Islamic state that says that if Israel is destroyed, the Messiah will return. And what should we expect from all this.
- But let's get back to Iran's nuclear program. Is it the big problem…
- The nuclear program is one part, because we already have as a condition the elimination of Iran's ballistic missiles. What is interesting is that there is one point that unites the two countries - Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran. And this point is that both countries agree that they do not want a Palestinian state. Both countries do not accept what Europe is proposing, what the Arab countries are proposing. Israel and Iran say that there should be one state. Some say that it should be a Jewish state, and others say that it should be an Islamic state. Here is another proof that this conflict is very strongly colored by religion. When we have mutually exclusive views, then this explosion occurs. What we are witnessing now are, I would say, the modern components of the religious battle.
- US President Donald Trump gave Iran 60 days to think when negotiations were underway to stop their nuclear program, and on the 61st day Israel launched Operation Rising Lion“…
- If we go back to those 60 days when talks were taking place, they looked a lot like the relationship between the world nuclear organization IAEA and Iran. Their relationship has been going on for maybe 15 years, but the two sides were playing cat and mouse. Iran sometimes wouldn't let them see the nuclear sites, sometimes it delayed them, didn't accept them, sometimes it hid, there was constant friction. But now - instead of the IAEA, we have Donald Trump. He directly told Iran that they had 60 days. Either they sit down and come to an agreement to do this, this and that, or things are over. And because nothing worked, because Iran was still expecting them to get away with just words, it came to conflict.
- What does Israel want. What will be success for them…
- Donald Trump said that he would not negotiate with Iran, but would provide an opportunity to sign documents that Iran was giving up its nuclear program. There will also be a second document that Iran is giving up its ballistic program. That is, the stakes have been raised. While during these 60 days the US has only been talking about Iran's nuclear program, now we have an additional component - ballistic missiles. So in my opinion, this is a minimum plan. And the maximum plan is the "Rising Lion" - this is the symbol of the dynasty that ruled Iran until 1979. This should tell us about overthrowing the regime in Tehran. Something that at this stage seems difficult to implement. And this is because there is no alternative on the political terrain in Iran, they do not have a clearly organized opposition. But there is something else. Did anyone believe that at the end of November last year, Bashar Assad's regime in Syria could fall. He was defeated by a militia. Now we see that some of Israel's attacks are aimed at nuclear installations, at military facilities, but there are also those against the symbols of the state. There was an attack on the Iranian parliament, on television, on Revolutionary Guard police stations. It is clear that they are looking for a way to weaken the Islamic Republic. When it is weakened, anything can be expected.