Donald Trump's series of attacks on the European Union is forcing its leaders to face the unthinkable: a future in which America is no longer their main security guarantor and Europe must organize its own defense much sooner than anyone imagined, writes "Politico".
Anticipating a reduced American role, EU leaders are already testing a European-led security order. Many of the most important decisions on Ukraine are being made within a "coalition of the willing" led by Britain and France, which also includes Germany.
Meanwhile, European policymakers are exploring deeper coordination through the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force or by pushing for a stronger "European pillar" within NATO, an idea long supported by Paris that is now gaining traction in Berlin.
A senior defense official from a mid-sized European country said talks on security guarantees for Ukraine with U.S. officials had become "awkward." More importantly, discussions have also developed over Article 5, the clause in the NATO treaty that requires allies to defend each other if one is attacked.
"Uncertainty" on how the US would behave in the event of an attack on a frontline country "is simply too high", the official stressed.
Open question
Other current and former security officials noted that the key question is no longer whether Europe will take primary responsibility for its defense and security, but when.
The absence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio from a recent meeting of NATO foreign ministers - something that has happened only a few times in the Alliance's history - has caused concern among EU and former NATO officials. It grew into a concern after his deputy, Christopher Landau, chided EU countries for prioritizing their own defense industries rather than continuing to buy from the United States.
Efforts to create new forums independent of Washington received a new boost last week with the publication of the Trump administration's National Security Strategy.
"The days when the United States held up the entire world order like Atlas are over", the document states. "Rich, developed nations must take primary responsibility for their regions".
In Europe, mass migration is "transforming the continent and creating conflict", the strategy also says.
"If current trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. It is therefore far from clear whether some European countries will have strong enough economies and militaries to remain reliable allies. If NATO allies become largely non-European, it is "an open question whether they will view their place in the world or their alliance with the United States in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter," the document added. On Monday, Trump emphasized the idea that Europe, which is undergoing "mass migration," is "disintegrating" and aimless. The bloc's "weak" leaders simply "don't know what to do," he said. "The people who are coming in have a completely different ideology," the president added. "They will be much weaker and they will be very different".
A new European order
Given the relentless attacks from the Trump administration, the European Union is quietly working to establish new security guarantees in case NATO's proves unreliable.
"The question is whether we should have some additional security guarantees and institutional arrangements to be ready - in case Article 5 is suddenly not applied," said Andrius Kubilius, the European Commissioner for Defense and former Lithuanian Prime Minister, in late November. However, "we must always rely on Article 5", he added.
One legal basis for such a guarantee can be found in the EU's common defense clause, Article 42.7, which was born after the Kosovo war in the late 1990s, when then-French and British leaders Jacques Chirac and Tony Blair jointly insisted that Europe take defense into its own hands.
Cubilius added that he wanted to use the next year to further develop the provisions in the clause to indicate what actions countries would take to defend each other.
He pointed to recent remarks by U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker suggesting that Germany take over the top military post in NATO from an American. The comment "is a signal that the Americans are actually asking us to take care of European defense".
The End of an Era
With warnings from European military chiefs and intelligence agencies that an attack by Russia could come as early as 2028, traditional European attitudes toward defense—and dependence on the United States—are rapidly changing.
Until recently, Germany had been steadfast in its support for the U.S.-led NATO. But under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Berlin is now in talks with Paris about how France’s nuclear deterrent can contribute to Europe’s security.
Meanwhile, Merz has shown an increasing willingness to differ with Washington on Ukraine and Europe’s security architecture. Parts of the Trump administration's National Security Strategy are "unacceptable", the conservative leader said yesterday.
The document confirmed Merz's view that "we in Europe and therefore in Germany must become much more independent of the United States in security policy".
The change reflects the changing dynamics in Germany's security elite. Roderich Kiesewetter, a former officer in the German army's general staff and a conservative member of the Bundestag, called Trump's security strategy "a slap in the face".
"Anyone who writes about partners in this way will not protect them when it really matters," he said. "What does this mean? The era of "security guarantees" is over".
Capacity Gaps
The challenge for Europe is how to move from rhetoric to action. The stakes are high - not least because adopting a continental defense would entail major compromises on welfare spending, which could in turn bring down governments.
Another obstacle is institutional. Given that the United States is NATO's largest partner, the Alliance is not a place where allies can plan for any post-American future. "That would defeat the very purpose of NATO," a senior diplomat from the military alliance explained.
There is no contingency planning within the Alliance for NATO without the United States, three NATO diplomats said. They interpret the signals from Washington not as a prelude to a US withdrawal from the Alliance, but as a powerful wake-up call for Europe, as Washington refocuses on the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific region.
"The United States and NATO allies take our Article 5 commitments very seriously," US Ambassador Whitaker said last week. "Article 5 is uncompromising".
"But we have expectations, namely that the Europeans will take on the conventional defense of the European continent," he added.
A third and particularly difficult task for the Europeans would be to replicate or replace the military capabilities currently provided by the United States.
The Europeans provide up to 60% of the capabilities in some areas, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokeswoman who is now a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank. But in others — such as reconnaissance, heavy airlift and deep strikes — the United States typically provides a disproportionate share.
"It would be very difficult for the Europeans to fill some of these capability gaps, certainly within a year or two," Lungescu said.
Some officials noted the fact that even if the Trump administration wanted to leave NATO, the U.S. Congress could block it. Indeed, U.S. defense legislation scheduled for a vote this week would place new limits on troop reductions in Europe, a bipartisan rebuke to the Trump administration's strategy.
For many Europeans, the message is clear. The Trump administration has made its position clear. More than ever, Europe is listening — and taking action.