A backup plan to ensure that Europe can defend itself using existing NATO military structures if the US withdraws is gaining momentum after receiving the support of Germany – a long-time opponent of the – – "go it alone" approach, writes "Wall Street Journal", quoted by BTA.
Officials working on the plans, which some call a "European NATO", seek to include more Europeans in the alliance's command and control roles and supplement US military resources with their own.
The plans – which are being developed informally through side discussions and dinner meetings in and around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – are not intended to compete with the current alliance, the participants said. European officials are seeking to maintain deterrence against Russia, operational continuity and nuclear reliability even if Washington withdraws its troops from Europe or refuses to defend it, as President Trump has threatened.
The plans, first conceived last year, underscore the depth of European anxiety about U.S. reliability. They accelerated after Trump threatened to take Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark, and are now taking on new urgency amid the conflict over Europe’s refusal to support the US war in Iran, the newspaper notes.
Political U-turn in Berlin Gives Process a Boost
For decades, Germany has resisted French-led calls for greater European sovereignty in defense, preferring to keep the United States as the ultimate guarantor of European security. That is now changing under German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, amid concerns about the US’s reliability as an ally during Trump’s presidency and beyond, according to people familiar with his thinking.
The challenge is enormous. NATO's entire structure is built around American leadership at almost every level, from logistics and intelligence to the alliance's supreme military command, the Wall Street Journal recalls.
The Europeans are now trying to take on more of these responsibilities, which Trump has long demanded. The alliance will be "more European-led," the pact's Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, said in mid-March.
Over time, NATO will be led more and more by Europe, Rutte said. To be pragmatic, on security issues, the US presence in Europe - conventional and nuclear - remains essential, he added. Rutte noted that Europe is still heavily dependent for some military capabilities, especially high-tech ones, that are mass-produced only by the United States.
The difference now is that Europeans are taking steps on their own initiative, due to Trump's growing hostility, and not as a result of prodding from the United States, the "Wall Street Journal" points out. In recent weeks, Trump has not spared "flattering words" for European allies, whom he has called "cowards" and called NATO a "paper tiger", adding: "(Russian President Vladimir) Putin knows it too."
"The shift of burden from the United States to Europe is underway and will continue... as part of the U.S. defense and national security strategy," said Finnish President Alexander Stubb, one of the leaders involved in the plans.
"The most important thing is to understand that this is happening, and to do it in a very manageable and controllable way, instead of [the U.S.] just quickly withdrawing," Stubb said in an interview.
Stubb is one of the few European leaders who maintains a close relationship with Trump, and his country has one of the strongest armed forces on the continent and the longest border with Russia.
Earlier this month, Trump threatened to leave NATO over allies' refusal to support his campaign against Iran, saying that this decision is no longer "non-negotiable". Any withdrawal from the alliance would require congressional approval, but the president could still withdraw troops or resources from Europe or withhold support, using his powers as commander in chief, the Wall Street Journal noted.
Immediately after Trump's threat, Stubb called the president to update him on Europe's plans to strengthen its own defenses, Reuters reported.
"The main message to our American friends is that after all these decades, it is time for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security and defense," Stubb said.
The decisive political catalyst for Europe was the historic shift in Berlin, as Germany hosts U.S. nuclear weapons and the country has long avoided questioning America’s role as the guarantor of European security, the Wall Street Journal notes. Germans and other Europeans feared that promoting European leadership within NATO could give the United States a pretext to reduce its role – an outcome many Europeans feared.
However, late last year Merz began to reassess that long-held view after concluding that Trump was ready to abandon Ukraine, according to people familiar with his thinking. Merz was concerned that Trump was confusing the victim and the aggressor in the war and that there were no longer clear values guiding US policy within NATO, the sources said.
However, the German leader did not want to publicly question the alliance, which would be dangerous, the sources said. Instead, the Europeans would have to take on a bigger role. Ideally, the US would remain in the alliance, but most of the defense would be left to the Europeans, the sources cited by the newspaper added.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that the ongoing discussions within NATO were not always easy, but if they led to solutions, it would create an opportunity for Europe. He described NATO as "indispensable for both Europe and the United States".
"But it is also clear that we Europeans must take greater responsibility for our defense, and we are doing exactly that," Pistorius said. "NATO must become more European to remain transatlantic."
Germany's shift in position has led to broader agreement among other countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Poland, the Nordic countries and Canada, which are now presenting the contingency plan as a coalition of the willing within NATO, according to officials involved in the process.
"We are taking precautions and holding informal talks with a group of like-minded people and will contribute to filling the gap within NATO when necessary," said Swedish Ambassador to Germany Veronika Vand-Danielsson.
Only after Berlin took the step did contingency planning move to addressing practical military issues, such as who would run NATO's air and missile defenses, reinforcement corridors to Poland and the Baltic states, logistics networks and major regional exercises if American officers were to withdraw. These remain the biggest challenges, officials said.
They say the introduction of conscription is another aspect that is crucial to the plan’s success. Many countries abolished it after the end of the Cold War. “I’m not going to give advice to any European country, but in terms of civic education, national identity and national unity, there’s probably nothing better than compulsory military service,” Stubb said. Finland has retained conscription.
The officials concerned want to speed up European production of vital equipment in areas where Europe lags behind the United States, including anti-submarine warfare, space and intelligence capabilities, air refueling and air mobility. They point to the joint project announced last month by Germany and the United Kingdom to develop stealth cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons as an example of the new initiative, writes "Wall Street Journal".
A change in thinking, but…
While the European efforts mark a fundamental change in thinking, realizing the ambition will be difficult. The Supreme Allied Commander Europe is always an American, and American officials have said they have no intention of relinquishing the post.
No European member state has enough authority in NATO to replace the United States as military leader, in part because only the United States can provide the continent-wide nuclear shield that underpins the alliance’s founding principle of mutual deterrence through force.
Europeans are increasingly taking on leadership roles, but they still lack critical capabilities due to years of underfunding and dependence on the United States, the newspaper noted.
The Europeanization of NATO “should have happened sooner,” said retired U.S. Admiral James Foggo, who has held senior NATO posts and is associated with the alliance. He said European members have a lot of professional officers and leaders.
"I think they have the capabilities. They have some of the equipment," but they need to invest and develop their capabilities more quickly, Fogo said.
The transition is already underway. A growing number of key NATO command posts are being filled by Europeans, and many of the major exercises recently held or planned for the coming months will be led by European forces – especially in the Nordic region, where the alliance borders Russia.
The situation is particularly difficult in the areas of intelligence and nuclear deterrence. European officials say that no redeployment of troops can quickly replace the American satellite, surveillance and missile warning systems that form the basis of NATO’s authority, putting France and Britain under pressure to expand both their nuclear and strategic intelligence roles.
The shift in Germany’s stance has opened the way to the most sensitive element of sovereign European defense: replacing the U.S. nuclear shield. After Trump threatened to attack Greenland, Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron began discussions about whether France's nuclear deterrent could be expanded to include other European countries, including Germany.
Trump himself seemed to acknowledge that Greenland had become the tipping point.
"It all started, if you want to know the truth, with Greenland", he said of his threat to leave NATO. "We want Greenland. They don't want to give it to us, and I said, "Okay, bye-bye," the "Wall Street Journal" quoted him as saying.
Radoslav Sikorski, Poland's deputy prime minister, later posted a video of Trump's statement, to which he added the comment "Noted".
But Europe is not united on the idea of Europeanizing NATO. This was made clear by the country's Defense Minister Nuno Melo, in contrast to the position of neighboring Spain, which became clear a few days ago.
Melo said that Portugal is a founding member of NATO that values the United States. He described Washington as a fundamental transatlantic partner.
"We are not in favor of creating a single European army," he told a parliamentary committee, adding that Portugal must invest in its armed forces to ensure that they are able to carry out the missions assigned to them within NATO.
Amid doubts about US President Donald Trump's commitment to European security, Spain has called on the European Union to take steps towards creating a separate joint army as a means of deterrence.
The topic of a "more European NATO" will be on the agenda of the alliance's annual summit in Ankara on July 7-8.