As the war in the Middle East enters its second month, choking global energy supplies and driving up oil prices, China is trying to play the role of peacemaker, writes the BBC. It comes after President Donald Trump said that US military action in Iran could end in "two to three weeks", but there is still no clear idea how that will happen or what will happen after that.
China is joining Pakistan in emerging as an unexpected mediator in the war between the US and Israel against Iran. Officials in Beijing and Islamabad have presented a five-point plan aimed at achieving a ceasefire and reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan, a former US ally, appears to have won Trump over to mediate the conflict.
Beijing enters the fray as a rival to Washington ahead of crucial trade talks between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Trump next month. China’s support for this is “very important,” said Zhu Yongbiao, a Middle East expert and director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University. “Morally, politically and diplomatically, China is providing comprehensive support in the hope that Pakistan can play a more distinctive role,” he said.
It is also a reversal for Beijing, whose official response to the war has so far been rather subdued. So why is China getting involved now?
The peace plan was drawn up after Pakistan’s foreign minister flew to Beijing to seek Chinese support for its efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict. His efforts appear to have worked. China’s foreign ministry said the two were making “new efforts to advocate for peace.” Their joint statement said dialogue and diplomacy were “the only viable option for resolving conflicts” and called for the protection of waterways, including the blocked strait.
It’s not just about oil, although that will be a problem. China, the world’s largest crude importer, has enough reserves to last for the next few months.
Beijing may have decided to play the role of peacemaker because a war in Iran threatens something Xi Jinping wants: stability. China needs a stable global economy because it is heavily dependent on selling goods around the world as it tries to revive its struggling domestic economy.
"If the rest of the world starts to slow down economically because of an energy shock, that will create difficulties for Chinese factories and exporters," said Matt Pottinger, chairman of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He said China is sincere in advising Iran that a way to end the war must be found. He said Beijing is a little worried about how far this could go if it turns into a real energy shock that is prolonged. There are already concerns that China’s industrial hub, which serves as the world’s factory, will be hit in the long run if this crisis continues.
Paying a higher price for oil affects the entire supply chain, from the plastics needed to make toys and games, to the raw materials for modern synthetic fabrics, to the hundreds of components used in phones, electric cars and semiconductors.
The US trade war with China during Trump’s first term has many business owners across the country looking for new markets around the world. As a result, China’s exports to the Middle East grew almost twice as fast as its exports to the rest of the world last year. The region has become the fastest-growing market for electric cars, and China is also the largest investor in desalination in the Middle East, where drinking water is scarce. The China National Electric Power Construction Corporation has projects in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Oman and Iraq.
As a result of its economic ties, China has cultivated relationships in the region with both U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and foes like Iran. Tehran and Beijing have a partnership that dates back decades. China is Iran’s top trading partner and buys about 80% of Iran’s oil. The Chinese government has played the role of peacemaker in the Middle East before, but with limited success.
In 2023, China brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who have long been on opposite sides of proxy wars in the Middle East. They severed ties in 2016 when Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shiite Muslim scholar, sparking protests in Iran.
With China acting as a mediator, the two countries agreed to restore diplomatic relations. This is in China’s interest. Beijing likely hopes that improved diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran will reduce the likelihood of regional tensions. A year later, Beijing hosted the leaders of 14 Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas. The talks led to the formation of a national unity government for the occupied West Bank and Gaza. The declaration was more of a statement of intent than a comprehensive agreement, but it once again underscored the role China could play in the region and its interest in Middle East stability.
China’s partnerships around the world come without security guarantees or military support. For Beijing, its economy comes first. And it is this economic interdependence with countries in the region that gives it an advantage and helps it project some influence.
China is wary of being drawn into broader conflicts. Its priority, both domestically and in foreign policy, is economic development. There is a broad consensus that China should not recklessly intervene in a war.
But this approach has its limits. China does not have the military capabilities in the region to intervene, even if it wanted to. The United States has bases in each of the Gulf states. China’s closest base is in Djibouti in East Africa, and was only established in 2017. It is a logistical hub for counter-piracy operations, not a force projection base.
During the 2025 Israel-Iran war, China stood aside and offered minimal support, revealing the limitations of its role as a partner.
As for the latest peace plan, neither the United States nor Iran have yet responded, but pushing this initiative allows Xi Jinping to play the role of neutral mediator and peacemaker—and once again to confront the leader of the other major superpower, the United States. Beijing’s confidence in portraying itself as a pragmatic international player comes with many caveats. Its alliance with Russia has consistently raised questions about its neutrality. Its growing control over Hong Kong and its repeated threats to take over self-ruled Taiwan by force if necessary remain huge concerns.
And China’s authoritarian leaders avoid any discussion of human rights and never condemn regimes for rights abuses or abuses of power. All of this makes President Xi Jinping an unlikely spokesman for a rules-based global order. But China is a powerful global player driven by strategic interests. It has shown some influence in the Middle East and certainly has ambitions to gain more influence in the future.