The Russian Federation is running out of its stock of Soviet equipment, Putin will ask for a truce, writes The Economist magazine, quoted by the Ukrainian agency UNIAN.
If nothing changes, Russian troops may have to change their posture to a more defensive one by the end of this year. This may even become apparent before the end of the summer. Expect Putin's interest in a temporary ceasefire to increase, the publication states.
For a long time it seemed that there was only one way for the war of attrition between Ukraine and Russia to end. But thus the Russian offensive against Kharkiv ends. Invader successes elsewhere, especially in the Donbass, were both strategically minor and achieved at enormous cost (in human casualties). The question now is not whether Ukraine can continue the fight, but how long Russia can maintain its current pace of operations.
The key problem for Vladimir Putin is not manpower. Russia may continue to recruit 25,000 more troops each month to maintain its frontline force of around 470,000. Production of missiles to target Ukrainian infrastructure is also increasing. But for all the talk of how Russia has become a war economy, it can only make up for its massive losses of tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery by withdrawing and rebuilding Soviet stockpiles. Although these reserves are huge, they are not unlimited.
Vladimir Putin has the old Politburo to thank for the massive stockpile of weapons amassed during the Cold War. Soviet leaders knew that Western military equipment was far more advanced than their own, so they chose mass production over quality.
Russia's ability to build new tanks or infantry fighting vehicles, or even restore old ones, is hampered by difficulties in obtaining components. The Russian defense industry is at a dead end.
The biggest problem comes with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, which are still critical for any large-scale offensive ground operations. Russia lost thousands of tanks after the invasion. At the current rate of losses of Russian tanks and infantry vehicles in stock, the Russians will reach a “critical exhaustion point” until the second half of next year.