Even before the start of the conflict between Iran and Israel, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with an American television station: "We have a big problem with kamikaze drones from Russia". Under the previous American administration, the delivery of 20,000 missiles with special technology that can intercept these drones was ordered. "We were counting on them. But the Minister of Defense just told me that the US has sent these 20,000 missiles to the Middle East," the president was quoted as saying by ARD.
Most Ukrainian observers believe that the US has delivered these missiles to Israel - because of the upcoming attack. Ukraine never received them.
More money for the Russian military
In the future, Ukraine will feel the impact of the conflict in the Middle East even more strongly, predicts former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin. "I think that the weapons that we will not receive will become even more. In the short term, the battle between Israel and Iran has a negative impact on us." Attention to Ukraine will decrease and the financial resources of Western countries will go in a different direction, Klimkin analyzes.
Another negative effect of the conflict for Ukraine is that oil prices have risen again. Accordingly, Russia earns more from its exports and has more money for the war in Ukraine.
Olexander Kharchenko from the Ukrainian think tank "Center for Energy Market Studies" is not particularly concerned about this development - at least for now. "The price increase that we are currently seeing is only due to market expectations." The decisive factor will be the development of the conflict and whether Israel will really intensively bomb Iranian oil fields, he notes.
Will Trump turn even closer to Putin?
There is also a third factor that worries Ukraine: US President Donald Trump may become even closer to Russian President Putin. After all, both of them are interested in peace between Israel and Iran for different reasons, say observers from Kiev, ARD writes.
The German public media recalls that the two spoke again on Saturday and asks whether Putin managed to win Trump over to his side on the issue of Ukraine during this contact.
According to Klimkin, not if the conflict in the Middle East continues for longer. "Then it is likely that Trump will turn more to European countries with the idea of a kind of "division of labor" - the US dealing with the conflict in the Middle East, and the Europeans - with the war in Ukraine, receiving support from the US."
But as Klimkin admits, this is speculation. To begin with, the conflict in the Middle East will worsen Ukraine's position in its defensive battle against Russia, the former foreign minister is convinced.
Author: Florian Kellermann (ARD)