The European Union's underground gas storage stocks could fall by up to 11% by the end of the heating season due to a combination of a cold winter, Russian pipeline disruptions and limited LNG availability. This is according to the winter analysis by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) for the period from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027.
The level corresponds to the EU's strategic reserves. ENTSOG specifies that these quantities are not freely available on the market under normal conditions and can be used mainly to limit shortages and protect consumers.
Europe enters winter with gas storages filled to an average of 72% as of 1 October. This equates to around 811 TWh, or approximately 74 billion cubic meters of gas. In comparison, a year earlier the level was 83%, indicating a lower initial availability before the heating season.
LNG shortage is the key risk
In a standard winter and minimized Russian supplies, stocks could reach 29% at the end of March with normal LNG availability. If LNG supplies are limited, the level could drop to 13%.
In a cold winter, the pressure on the system increases sharply. In the ENTSOG scenarios, stocks fall to 11%, while demand that will not be covered or will require curtailment reaches around 7% with normal LNG availability and around 12% with limited supplies. To maintain an average 20% load factor at the end of the season, around 1,364 TWh, or 124 billion cubic meters of LNG, would be needed.
In the event of a complete disruption of the remaining Russian pipeline supplies, the need to curtail demand in a cold winter could reach 9% with normal LNG availability and 15% with limited availability. The risk is greater for landlocked countries in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, where access to additional supplies is more limited.
The system remains flexible, but stocks must be preserved
ENTSOG assesses the European gas infrastructure as flexible enough to meet demand, including by increasing LNG imports. Europe's regasification capacity is around 1,600 TWh for the winter season, or approximately 145 billion cubic meters.
“Entering winter, this analysis shows that every additional molecule of gas available today — in storage or via LNG — strengthens Europe's position not only in the coming months but also in the next injection season“, said ENTSOG Director General Piotr Kusz.The European Commission also indicated that the EU gas system can cover demand in the winter, but stressed the importance of constant LNG supplies and careful stock management. The Commission specified that the actual use of storage will depend on market decisions, temperatures and the availability of imported quantities.
ENTSOG explicitly notes that the options considered are not a forecast of the actual development of the market, but an assessment of potential risks. Low stocks at the end of winter may make it difficult to replenish them the following summer, even with greater availability of liquefied gas.
Sources: entsog.eu, energy.ec.europa.eu