US oil refining companies Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 are on track to report record profits for the third quarter of 2026. The reason is the combination of military conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, limited fuel supplies and rising prices for petroleum products, reports The Wall Street Journal.
The three companies achieved near-record results in the second quarter. Analysts expect their new reports to surpass those indicators, as the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of finished fuels has increased. This metric, known as the crack spread, is a key factor in refinery profitability.
Valero and Marathon Forecasts
JPMorgan forecasts Valero's pretax profit of $8.95 billion for the third quarter. That would be 50% higher than the previous quarter and 24% above the record set in mid-2022.
For Marathon Petroleum, analysts at Piper Sandler expect earnings per share to grow more than sevenfold compared to the same period last year. The financial results of the three companies are expected to be published in late October and early November.
The growth in margins is supported by problems with the operation of oil refining capacities in the Middle East, as well as reduced fuel exports from China and other Asian countries. About 12.1% of the world's oil refining capacity was idled in September, according to Industrial Info Resources.
Stocks more than doubled in price
Shares of Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 closed Thursday at record highs. Since the beginning of 2026, their value has more than doubled, and the combined market capitalization of the three companies has grown by about $224 billion. By comparison, the S&P 500 index has added 13% over the same period.
Despite high margins, the companies are in no hurry to expand production, as they assess the current profitability as temporary. "They're taking advantage of the moment when the sun is shining, and when it's not shining, you can't mow much hay," said oil market analyst John Auers.
U.S. refiners have increased fuel exports in the summer to compensate for supply disruptions from other countries. Data cited by Reuters showed that for the week to Aug. 7, U.S. diesel and heating oil exports reached a record 1.9 million barrels per day.
At the same time, the high workload of U.S. plants makes the market more vulnerable to shutdowns due to hurricanes, accidents or other unforeseen events. In July, President Donald Trump criticized oil companies for their high revenues and called for some of the excess profits to be returned to consumers.