Trade restrictions imposed by the US administration on other countries pose risks to the global economy. This is stated in the report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), based on the results of the annual review of the American economy.
„The continued tightening of trade restrictions and the increased use of preferences to serve domestic versus foreign trade interests pose a growing risk to both the US and global economies. The U.S. should actively engage with its major trading partners to address key issues (including concerns about unfair trade practices, supply chain instability, and national security) that risk undermining the global trade and investment system, the report's authors note.
They say imposing tariffs and trade barriers “is not the right solution because they distort trade and investment flows and risk creating a slippery slope that undermines the multilateral trading system, disrupts global supply chains and provokes retaliation by country of trading partners”. “These policies have ultimately harmed US economic growth, productivity and labor market performance, and evidence suggests that their costs are borne largely by US consumers and businesses. The United States should remove barriers to free trade and instead seek to improve competitiveness through investments in worker education, skills training and infrastructure, the IMF says. The fund's experts recommend that the United States fully participate in efforts to strengthen the World Trade Organization.
Furthermore, as noted in the report, the inflation situation in the US “is associated with serious risks”. The fund states that the economic situation in the country “may prevent the expected decline in inflation in the services sector, other than real estate”. “Escalation of geopolitical tensions (for example, as a result of the conflict in the Middle East or the war in Ukraine) may lead to an increase in energy prices, which will subsequently affect wages and core inflation”, the authors of the report emphasize.
At the same time, the IMF revised its April forecast for US GDP growth in 2024: it is now estimated at 2.6%, not 2.7%. The figure for 2025 remains unchanged - 1.9%.