After ultimatums, termination and resumption of negotiations between the two formations in the governing non-coalition and countless media accusations, the process of the so-called rotation of the government did not happen.
This is stated in an analysis of the Institute for the Study of the Public Environment.
The procedure for handing over a mandate for the formation of a new Council of Ministers follows. The three formations that were given the opportunity to propose a cabinet failed to cope with this task. Thus, Dimitar Glavchev, the chairman of the Audit Chamber, was elected acting prime minister, and in order for him to take office, the deputies quickly changed the legislation.
The President has already announced that on June 9th, 2 in 1 elections will be held. In addition to the European Parliament, we will vote for the National Assembly for the sixth time in the last 3 years. And in the upcoming campaign, the current partners in power will face each other for the voters' votes.
In this situation, the team of the Institute for the Development of the Public Environment (IRPS) checked how the electoral support for GERB has changed – one of the biggest parties in our country in the last 15 years. In this publication, we will present the data on its results in the parliamentary elections in the period 2013-2023.
GeRB political party was founded in 2006 as a continuation of the previously formed civil association "Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria". Its first chairman was Tsvetan Tsvetanov, although the informal leader was the then mayor of Sofia and former chief secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs from 2001 to 2005. – Boyko Borisov.
For the parliamentary vote in April 2021, GERB formed a pre-election coalition with SDS – successor to the "Union of Democratic Forces" created at the end of 1989. This format of the GERB-SDS coalition still exists today.
How many votes has GERB won over the years?
And how has the electoral support for GERB changed in the last ten years? Does the formation's long involvement in governance have an impact on the voters and in what direction? Is support for the party decreasing and in which constituencies (IR)?
In 2013, after an almost full management mandate, GERB received 1,081,605 votes or over 30.5% support. Despite being the first political force, it failed to form a cabinet and remained in opposition to the coalition government between the BSP for Bulgaria and the DPS. However, it resigned after prolonged protests caused by the proposal for Delyan Peevski to become the chairman of DANS. Thus, in the next elections in the fall of 2014, GERB received the support of 32.6% or 1,072,491 votes and formed a government together with the Reform Bloc and ABV. It ruled for a year and a half and resigned due to the loss of the party's candidate Tsetska Tsacheva in the 2016 presidential election. In the subsequent parliamentary vote at the end of March 2017, GERB increased its support and reached 34% or 1,147,292 votes. This is also the party's highest result in the last 10 years. GERB again formed a governing coalition, but this time with the United Patriots (VMRO, NFSB and Ataka), with whose support the government was at the head of the state for a full four-year term.
In the campaigns since 2021, the votes of GERB* vary between 596 thousand (22.7%) and 838 thousand (26.2%). There are various factors that influence the results of the party in this period. On the one hand, these are the civil protests of 2020 and the serious dissatisfaction with the presence of GERB in power for nearly a decade. On the other hand – the appearance of the new political projects “There is such a people” in April 2021 and “Continuing the Change” in November 2021, who declared themselves as an alternative to the status quo.
The dynamics of GERB votes for the last ten years can be followed in the following graph:
How do votes for GERD change by region?
In 2013, GERB received the most votes from Sofia (Sofia 23 IR – 78,176 votes and Sofia 25 IR – 70,035 votes) and Varna – 73 171. These three constituencies formed about 21% of the support for the party in the parliamentary elections then. GERB received the fewest votes in Vidin -12,335, Targovishte – 10,783 and Razgrad – 10,325.
In 2023, the same three constituencies again form ⅕ of the party's result. The votes cast for GERB were, respectively, 52,096 in Varna constituency, 46,120 in Sofia 23 IR and 39,958 in Sofia 25 IR. Support for the formation is the smallest again in Razgrad – 7,963 votes also in Targovishte – 7,431 votes, as well as in Kardzhali – 7,294 votes.
Regarding GERB voters abroad, their numbers have also decreased in the last 10 years. While in 2013 they were 23,090, in 2023 they will be 14,694.
What the GERB electoral map looked like in 2013 and ten years later, we present in the following infographic. In it, you can also familiarize yourself with the results in all 31 regions in the country and their change in absolute numbers and in percentages.
The reduced support for GERD is clearly visible. After eight campaigns, the party lost an average of about 38% of the votes it received in 2013. The most significant was the outflow of those who voted for GERB in Yambol, Dobrich and Ruse – between 53% and 50%. On the opposite pole are Montana, Vratsa and Blagoevgrad, where the support for the party falls to the smallest degree – between 19% and 21%.
The outflow of voters for GERB does not lead to a drastic drop in support for the party in percentages – 30.5% in 2013 and 26.5% before 2023. This is largely explained by the reduced voter turnout. However, this is not the case with mandates. While GERB maintains its position as the first political force in the parliament, its deputies in the National Assembly have decreased significantly – from 97 in 2013 to 69 in the current National Assembly.
There are various factors that have an impact on the results not only of GERB, but also of the other parliamentaryly represented formations in the considered period. So, for example, in 2013, we can point to the participation in the elections of numerous smaller parties that do not enter the parliament, but "spend" part of the vote, and thus the quota for obtaining a mandate is reduced. The lower representation of the parliament in this case leads to more deputies for the four parties that entered the National Assembly.
In 2023, the reduced voter turnout also results in a lower quota needed to win a mandate. This means that formations with solid electoral cores, such as GERB, would benefit from the decline in voters. On the other hand, however, more party entities manage to cross the 4% barrier at the national level and gain representation in parliament. Thus, the result of GERB, although close in percentage to that of 2013, leads to fewer MPs for the group.
Detailed distribution of GERD results – as a percentage of all votes cast in the respective constituency and as the number of mandates, we present in the following graph:
An illustrative example of the sustainable presence of GERB is that of Northwestern Bulgaria. In Vidin, Vratsa and Montana regions in 2013, the party won 26.9% of all votes cast (or 55,100 votes), which brought them 5 mandates from these seats. In 2023, the formation received 31% (or 43,392 votes) and 4 parliamentary seats. It should be borne in mind that due to the decreasing population in this region of the country, IR Montana loses one mandate. The increase in support for DPS in North-West Bulgaria, as well as the entry of new formations such as “We continue the Change– Democratic Bulgaria”.
It can be seen that GERB retains its relative influence in most regions of the country, despite the decreased support for the party in absolute number of votes. But what would happen if the formation manages to regain the trust of those people who voted for it in 2013? It is likely that it will once again become the main political entity in the country. In view of this, the most important question facing GERB is how the party can re-attract those voters who were its sympathizers in the past, but subsequently turned away from it. In this regard, GERB should assess the reasons for the loss of these votes and develop its strategy in such a way as to attract at least some of them back. If the party succeeds in doing this, it will restore its leading role in the governance of the country.