The international rating agency Standard & Poor's confirmed the long-term and short-term credit rating of Bulgaria in foreign and local currency – BBB/A-2. The outlook for the rating remains positive.
The agency notes that if a stable government is formed quickly after the June elections and a prolonged period of instability is avoided, there is not expected to be a significant delay in the country's accession to the eurozone.
The rating agency believes that even if Bulgaria does not join the eurozone in 2025, it will probably be postponed only until January 1, 2026.
Despite the aging and reduction of the working-age population, the rating agency assumes that Bulgaria's economy has strong prospects for growth in the next few years. They forecast real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of just under 3% on average in 2025-2027, supported mostly by increased domestic demand.
The forecast shows that consumption will remain strong amid a resilient labor market with near-record low unemployment rates and positive real wage growth. At the same time, sufficient funds from the European Union (EU) will support investment activity for several years.
According to the rating agency, Bulgaria has one of the best fiscal results of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe, and they estimate that current fiscal plans will lead to deficits below 3% of GDP by 2027.
Standard & Poor's report that they can raise the country's rating in the next two years by several degrees if Bulgaria becomes a member of the Eurozone. The rating agency adds that they would revise the outlook for the rating to stable if the prospect of Bulgaria joining the eurozone becomes less likely.