The overall forecast picture for the already ongoing European elections is for a certain erosion of the green and liberal parties, an increase of the groups of the European conservatives and reformists and of "Identity and Democracy" is expected. However, it is about changing the balance, not about a revolution.
This opinion was expressed to the BNR by political scientist Daniel Smilov, program director of the Center for Liberal Strategies.
No conclusions can be drawn from the results in the Netherlands, although they are surprising after the strong wave in the populist and far-right direction, Smilov believes. According to him, "the reversal of this trend in the Netherlands is a very interesting sign.
There will be no dominance of far-right parties, but it will become more difficult to form a coalition, the political scientist predicts regarding the appearance of the future European Parliament.
"And with the darkest scenarios being drawn, the three first groups in the EP – The EPP, the Socialists and the Liberals would still have a majority, albeit not a comfortable one. It seems to me that they will have a majority, which is fragile."
The group of far-right Eurosceptic parties is not uniform and can hardly be united, Daniel Smilov emphasized.
"This is an element that makes the opposition from the extreme right not to be consolidated and not to be a united front. The only thing that unites them is a kind of criticism of European institutions", he noted.
The political scientist pointed out that among the far-right there are dividing lines both on Ukraine and on topics related to national interests.