If judging by the preliminary requests, the GERB-SDS minority cabinet should not can gather more than 115 deputies in the National Assembly. This cabinet can hardly muster additional support.
This is what the political scientist and co-founder of the Trend Research Center said. Dimitar Ganev in front of "Focus".
He noted that the handover of the folder with the draft cabinet by the candidate for Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov means that GERB-SDS believes that talks about possible support of the cabinet will not lead to a change in the previously stated positions of the parliamentary groups.
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"It seems to me that this is rather a move that demonstrates readiness for a cabinet, capacity with individuals. I do not think that this is a cabinet that was made in order to bring about some kind of compromise with certain political forces and, accordingly, find support. If there was any hope for support from the third political force in the person of the PP-DB, it would probably not be there some iconic figures for whom the PP-DB have long declared their attitude, such as the Minister of Internal Affairs Kalin Stoyanov or the Minister of Justice, for which has very clear positions," commented Ganev.
He did not rule out the possibility that a split will appear among some of the groups that have given a request that they will not support a GERB-SDS cabinet, and that some of their deputies will announce their support.
The proposed draft cabinet is strictly political, with prominent party figures, Dimitar Ganev pointed out. "It seems that support is not sought from the other parliamentary groups. I'm not sure if GERB-SDS would agree to bear full responsibility for a cabinet that will be on the edge of the parliamentary majority, with continuous negotiations, he added.
According to him, if the first mandate is not implemented, new elections will most likely be held in the fall.
In his words, Bulgaria is in the deepest and longest political crisis since the Liberation. "These are six parliamentary elections and an expected seventh within three years. "Imagine the depth and magnitude of this crisis," stressed the political scientist.
Dimitar Ganev noted that the average voter turnout in the country in the last two decades was about 3.5 million people. About 1.3 million fewer people voted in the last election. "This is a potential for the realization of an electoral wave of a huge order and a potential reformation of the party system. These continuous elections and the impossibility of another National Assembly to form a cabinet will generate increasingly strong voices in the direction that the parliamentary model is exhausted, that constitutional changes must be made and that the only salvation for the country is through a presidential or semi-presidential form of management.
There is no doubt that this will be taken up by political "entrepreneurs" who will take it as a tool for electoral mobilization. I think that a big change in the country is brewing and will be realized in a foreseeable period of time”, the political scientist predicted.