Interview in the program "Bulgaria, Europe and the world in focus" on Radio "Focus" with sociologist Yuriy Aslanov
Do you think the parties are on the same page after the election or are they each walking behind their walls?
We are already experiencing a systemic political crisis. Let's remember that it started from a crisis of confidence in the institutions, which developed very alarmingly over the years, but gradually transformed into a crisis in the political system, and people began to look for alternatives that more or less, populist or not, offered messages to change this system. After that, however, people became convinced that what constitutes the unpleasant, in their opinion, unacceptable behavior of the institutions is due to the parties, because of which they transferred their negativity to the political entities. And this has been visible for several years. It can be seen that the parties are permanently distanced from the voters. In practice, they shrink around their so-called cores, that is, groups of hard-line like-minded people, their own members or activists. And they are getting less and less close to what people expect from them.
That's right, for a long time the conflict between individual politicians is not healthy, but rather alienating people. What has happened in recent days with the sad attempts to form a government, the tension in the DPS, can it be characterized by one person or organization, in your opinion?
What is happening in DPS is a special case of everything that happens in every single party, without exception. The fact that at this stage we do not notice it in the bowels of one or two of the parties does not mean that they are not affected by the general syndrome. Because both GERB and "Vazrazhdane", if they make an exception to the general rule, at least for now, it can be seen that they are reducing their nominal support from election to election. Although, due to the declining voter turnout, they relatively and proportionally continue to behave as imaginary winners or successful projects, it does not mean that they are not in crisis. So what is happening in DPS, in BSP, somewhat in “Vazrazhdane", in this new party that disappeared from the horizon in a matter of days.
"Majesty".
“Greatness", all this is a common syndrome of the systemic political crisis we are experiencing and of which I speak. It is obvious that the search for an alternative is exhausting people's imagination because there are no longer these giant explosions, albeit for a little while, that we witnessed in the past. The appearance of NDSV, then GERB, ATTACK, “There is such a people" etc. etc. They already have a very limited scale and as we can see, they appear very briefly. Even what is said, that if the president appears on the party ground and asserts his position and makes his project. And this makes me think that this will not solve the crisis either, or at least postpone it for a while. That is why I say, as a society we are experiencing a very severe, deep, systemic crisis. And the direction in which he thought was right, the decisions were wrong. That is, the direction was to change the constitution, but the decisions were extremely wrong, because they aimed to preserve the status quo, not to change it.
Mr. Aslanov, in the past few days we have witnessed some things in the DPS that we are generally not used to witnessing, both the media and society, as if many of the things were on display. In his last address to the media, Delyan Peevski said that there is no conflict between Dogan and Peevski, there is a topic of Peevski - deribes. I quote: “The deribei who got rich on Dogan's back, who harassed people with this for up, this for me, they sent me, etc. Both our people and the deribei themselves know very well what I'm talking about. However, the real theme is the new beginning, that scared the derbies. How do you read his words, Mr. Aslanov, and what are the deribes that Mr. Peevski is talking about?
Well, I don't know, if Peevski is the new beginning and he symbolizes this fight against deribes, it sounds to me, to put it mildly, rather strange and unreliable. Let's imagine that these things he says have been said many times to the DPS elite. But when it's him doing it, somehow, not just me, he doesn't make anyone believe him. It seems to me that he is acting a bit like a scared person about Dogan's possible response.
Because at least this impression is left that a possible turning of Dogan against him and a sharper message to the DPS voters will take a stronger footing in this party than the presence of Peevski himself. And this very persistent talk, in the direction that we respect each other very much, we are like father and son, we are together, there is no conflict, rather it is fueling the growth of doubt that it is true, rather than the other way around. And indeed, Dogan's eventual response may shed some light or resolution on this party drama. As for the fact that we are seeing it for the first time, it is somewhat true, you are right that such a split has not been manifested on such a scale and in such depth in the DPS.
But over the years, there have been many similar incidents, but they ended in the same way, because in the end they ended with the personal intervention of Dogan and things returned to the point where they had started before the conflict. I'm not going to list the many examples over the years because their heroes parade around the media saying what they've always said way back in time. But we know that in the end nothing fatal happened in the DPS, as a result of similar dramas over the years, unlike other formations that split, split, peeled, split, swarmed, etc. This did not happen in the DPS never happened. Whether it will now happen for the first time is indeed an interesting question. I personally don't believe it will happen yet, but events may disprove me. But in any case, what is happening in the DPS is not harmless and it is not anything. Because this party really has its own special place, a specific role in maintaining ethnic peace.
You said that the official position that we expect from Ahmed Dogan will either shed light or be a denouement, but rather a light, in your opinion, that is, there will be no denouement and things will be extinguished, as has it ever been?
It's possible, more like this is the likely scenario, but it's possible that something else could happen and the outcome would be that one of the two would be sacrificed. One of the two bearers, flags of this intra-party conflict, to fall victim to circumstances. If this happens, I rather believe that the victim will be Peevski, and not Dogan, as has been more often claimed in recent days.
The chances for the second term, what do you think remain, after these upheavals in the DPS?
I think that the president is not stupid and he is monitoring the processes in the DPS and will expect a very clear signal about the direction of the solution, about the extinguishing of the intra-party tension in this party before handing over the second exploratory mandate. Because still for the first and for the second, the president does not have a deadline in which the Constitution obliges him to deliver it. It is not like the third term - 7 days. In the case of the third mandate, there is no deadline for his return, but that is another topic. So I think the president will not rush until the situation in this party is clarified. He is aware that whatever decisions are made at this stage in the parliamentary group, they will be decisions dictated by one side in the conflict. Until the other side has had its say, I think the president will not be in a hurry to hand over a mandate.