Bulgaria can actually enter the eurozone on January 1, 2026, said economist Vladimir Sirkarov in an interview for the show "Sunday 150" of the BNR.
On our chances for next year, he stated:
"I don't think there is a real chance, hypothetically it could, and the realistic date to aim for is January 1, 2026."
According to him, the gap between expenses and revenues in the state budget is quite wide and predicts that next year it will widen even more. As an example, he pointed to electricity compensation for businesses and believes that this will affect the 2024 budget.
"This is a key topic and unfortunately we see imbalances. In general, if you look at the concept of the green transition of Europe, you can see how the impossible is being done in terms of terms and technology, how to make the process happen. The key is the resource we have and do not use it and what measures should be taken in order to have sustainable economic development, to have energy security. All this goes through a number of measures and we see that this topic is related to the political situation, which is not flourishing in Bulgaria and a number of important decisions are being blocked", he commented.
And he recalled that so far we have only one payment of about BGN 2.6 billion in 2022 under the PVA and "since then we have been observing discussions and attempts to stick the commitments that we need to protect and their implementation, and to make plan how and when to get BGN 1.3 billion.
He pointed out that he does not believe that until the elections there will be a dialogue with the parties at the expert, strategic and statesman level about the management of public finances.
"The numbers and the general trend are not positive, because the gap between income and expenditure is opening more and more. Finance Minister Petkova's numbers show that in 2025 the situation will be aggravated. If the current measures are maintained, the scissors will open further and we will go to a deficit of around BGN 18 billion, it may be less, or around an 8% budget deficit. In order to fight to reach 3%, we need serious actions on the expenditure side. And for me, this is the most effective, but it is necessary to look for reforms on the expenditure side", recommended the economist Vladimir Sirkarov.
According to him, "certainly cost cutting will be along the lines of capital programs" from the investment program of the municipalities. And predicts a cut in projects "because capital costs are the first to be touched":
"Although from an economic point of view it is the hardest because it is the only cost effective if done properly. We must not forget that decisions are made on the basis of political and electoral interest, the other is the freezing of public expenditures. Such measures must be taken on a certain scale and there must be a political consensus in order to pass this period constructively."
Sirkarov commented that the discussion on increasing revenues through changing the tax system is opening:
"I am very skeptical about the positive effects, I think they will be negative. There are measures in the expenditure part, but they are related to political will and consensus, and such is not visible in the sky."
According to him, one of the measures is to lighten the economy and comments on the boom in buying properties with money in cash.
"Clarification of the economy is a difficult process related to the complex work of all institutions. I think the NRA did a lot of things. "If there is no corruption in the state administration, the economy will lighten up faster, if the environment improves, the incentive to pay taxes and insurance will be greater," commented the economist.