The formula of the 51st National Assembly is 7+2.
This is what political scientist Dimitar Ganev from the Research Center "Trend" told BNR. and specify:
"Seven safe political formations enter the parliament and two that have a chance of representation, since they are around 3.5% and with an effective mobilization within the campaign they could jump the 4% barrier.
He pointed out that there is no major event on the horizon that could completely overturn voters' attitudes, thus changing the formula of 7 safe formations in it.
"At the moment there is no great alternative to the status quo and to these parties that have ruled us in recent years. This leads to a downward trend in voter turnout in the last 2 years or so, which will probably deepen in the upcoming elections. The trend we are seeing in the polls is one of increasing apathy and distancing from the electoral process, which could lead us to 2 million people at the polls on October 27th, unless some event occurs that mobilizes the so-called electoral fringes who have been staying at home for a year and a half, who are over 1 million people, some of them to come out and tip the scales with their vote.
The task of forming a cabinet is not getting easier, it is only getting more complicated, the political scientist categorically emphasized.
"Probably, it will be necessary to seek the support of a third, and maybe even a fourth, to make a majority for a government - this is in the case of an 8 or 9-party parliament. The equation becomes very difficult, but not impossible, because there is a motivating factor to form a cabinet and it is related to the potential collapse of the party system in a new election. They are threatened".
According to Dimitar Ganev, the search for a political alternative is gigantic:
"There is no formation in sight that will have better results in these elections, they will even have worse".
The political scientist emphasized that it is very difficult to predict whether there will be a government produced by the 51st National Assembly, pointing out that the main parties in this campaign do not set red lines that they will not rule together:
"The only question is the name of the prime minister".