The formula for the 51st National Assembly is 7+ 2. Seven formations with secure parliamentary representation and two with chances of crossing the barrier. Between 2 and 2.2 million Bulgarians will exercise their right to vote on Sunday.
This is shown by the data from a survey by “Trend“ commissioned by “24 hours", dedicated to the attitudes of Bulgarians at the end of the election campaign.
The research was carried out in the period between October 16 and 22, 2024 through a direct semi-standardized face-to-face interview. with a tablet among 1002 people aged 18+.
„This latest study of ours opens up many unknowns. Which can lead to completely different situations with a small change in percentages. The battle for second place is literally less than half a percent difference. It is impossible to say who will be second and who will be third.
I mention this not by chance, because it does not matter who will be in second place. Not because one will have one deputy more or less, but because it means a second term possibly.
I would emphasize a stronger possible effect – second place at “Revival” – new political situation in the country. This could give a possible argument and impetus to the parties from the so-called Euro-Atlantic camp – GERB-SDS and PP-DB, to start negotiations, arguing that there is already a party in second place, which casts doubt on some basic political consensuses in the country.
I very much doubt that there will be any serious talks beyond the first mandate.
This was stated in “Hello, Bulgaria” the political scientist from "Trend" Dimitar Ganev.
GERB-SDS is the leader in the ranking with the support of 24.9% of the voters with a comfortable distance from the second. Further down in the ranking, three groups of formations stand out, and in each group the results of individual parties and coalitions are similar. The first group is in the battle for the second place, in which "Vazrazhdane" falls. (15.2%) and "We continue the change-Democratic Bulgaria" (14.8%).
The second group includes the "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (7.8%), "DPS-New Beginning" (7%), "There is such a people" (6.6%) and BSP is (6.5% ). The third group of parties is in the fight for parliamentary representation and is made up of MECH (4%) and "Velichie“ (3.6%). "Blue Bulgaria" remains with the support of 1.7% of voters.
The differences in values between the formations in each of the groups is less than a percentage, which suggests that shifts in the arrangement are quite possible.
The share of respondents indicated that they would vote with the option “I do not support anyone” is 4.3%, and this percentage is distributed among all formations.
The election campaign has failed to motivate more voters to exercise their right to vote and the expected turnout is between 2 million and 2,200,000 people expected to vote.