Before the final days of the campaign: 7 formations are likely to have MPs in the National Assembly, one is on the brink and another has its chances to enter the 51st Parliament.
The data is based on a survey by "Gallup International Balkan" for the Bulgarian National Radio. The survey covers 1,007 people in a sample representative of the adult population in the country and was conducted through a face-to-face interview. with tablets between October 10 and 21. The research is not a forecast of an election result, but a snapshot of attitudes registered a few days before the vote.
If what was stated the week before the vote was repeated on Sunday, the results would look like this:
GERB-SDS will take 26.1% of the votes.
PP-DB and "Revival" – 16.2% and 14.9% respectively – are in a pack and it is not clear who would finish in second and third place, but at this moment PP-DB has visibly better prospects.
It is difficult to assess the situation in the field of the traditional DPS electorate, the sociologists from "Gallup" comment. The Alliance for Rights and Freedoms is at the level of 7.9%, but the upward trend in "DPS-New Beginning" leads to a practical leveling of support – 7.6%.
"However, the final days of the campaign may change this arrangement and bring the "DPS-New Beginning" ahead of the APS if their upward trend continues and due to the higher organizational resource for mobilization demonstrated by them", the sociologists claim. The vote from abroad, which is only indirectly taken into account in such surveys, can also lead to fluctuations in the result.
"BSP-United Left" would have 7.1% support. The support for ITN is also stable - 6.2%.
From "Gallup" add that these several formations are in a kind of "package", and there is a certain chance that one or even two more formations will join it.
One week before the vote on the very edge of the 4 percent barrier, with good chances to overcome it, are MECH with 4.1% and "Greatness" with 3.8%.
"Blue Bulgaria" is at the level of 1.2%. The remaining shares are for formations with less than a percentage of declarative support.
"It is expected that by the election day on Sunday some changes will occur in the disposition of some political forces, due to various factors such as the traditional formation of a final decision of a part of the voters of the final right, influence of various organizational and client networks for mobilization on election day, etc., sociologists comment.
From their data it is clear that the expected turnout for voting for the National Assembly is 31.1%, taking into account the conventions of the electoral lists, as well as the sincerity of the answers.
The hypothetical expectation is about 2 million votes, with 3.4% of the actual votes – from today's perspective – they are likely to be: "I support no one".
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The data is from "Gallup International Balkan" for the Bulgarian National Radio. The research was conducted between October 10 and 21, 2024, among 1,007 people using the face-to-face method. with tablets. The two-stage nested sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is +3.1% at 50 percent shares. 1% of the entire sample is equal to about 54 thousand people.