There is still a chance for "Democratic Bulgaria" to join the negotiations to form a government. In this last week before the handing over of the mandate, it should be clarified whether we are moving towards a four-way coalition or a much more unstable formula that will rely on floating majorities. This was said by the manager of the "Alpha Research" Agency; Boryana Dimitrova in the program "Bulgaria, Europe and the World in Focus" on Radio "Focus".
At the moment, negotiations between the political parties have not been terminated, but this does not mean that a deadlock cannot occur, she believes.
"The communication formats indicate that this time a government will be formed. But I would remain somewhat skeptical about the substantive format that is currently being outlined," commented Dimitrova.
When excluding "Democratic Bulgaria" from the talks, the votes of the other political parties are not enough to form a stable government and one must rely on another political force or have a minority government.
"This formula is emerging as unstable in terms of key priorities that the individual parties have so far stated regarding financial policy and discipline, the introduction of the euro, the approach to judicial reform, support for Ukraine, the share of GDP for supporting the armed forces. There are quite serious pitfalls. They would also exist in a variant with "Democratic Bulgaria", but then we would have a more stabilizing formula of two political forces - GERB and DB, which have the same views to a much greater extent, and two other political forces with which they could pursue a balanced policy. At the moment, this formula seems doubly unstable due to the lack of enough votes and the lack of stabilizing longer-term policies that would make this government sustainable," the sociologist explained.
According to her, the dividing line in the negotiations between GERB and DB was probably the figure of the prime minister: "I would not put his personality, but rather the iconic, symbolic sound of the figure of Rosen Zhelyazkov, that it is closely tied to GERB. The second line along which we should look for differences are the views on the order in which the most immediate steps should be carried out regarding the election of the Supreme Judicial Council, the Prosecutor General and other key figures in the regulators. There is enough tension and distrust on both sides, enough internal suspicions that they cannot be easily cleared up," commented Boryana Dimitrova.
The stated support from the "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" for a minority government while observing the cordon sanitaire around Delyan Peevski and without the participation of "Vazrazhdane", according to her, is not sufficient for stable governance. With each bill and more substantial policies, the governing minority would face serious challenges that would destabilize the ruling coalition, believes Dimitrova.
A minority government means that it will have not one, but a series of oppositions: "If the DB does not enter, the PP-DB will also be in opposition. "This is a rather difficult political environment in the already fragile balance of political forces that is currently being sought," the sociologist added.