Joining the Eurozone represents for Bulgaria both a strategic shield and an opportunity for institutional renewal in the context of global economic fragmentation and persistent uncertainty.
This thesis is defended by the Governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, Dimitar Radev, in a publication for the 2-year-old academic journal "Bulgarian Journal of International Economics and Politics", published in English by the University of National and World Economy. The article, titled "Managing Structural Volatility: Bulgaria's Strategic Reserve Management and the Upcoming Eurozone Membership", examines how structural political and economic volatility is transforming the global environment and what the consequences are for public investors, with a focus on Bulgaria's upcoming accession to the eurozone.
The analysis argues that the adoption of the euro is not only a stabilizing factor, but also a strategic necessity against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical and financial fragmentation. In this context, Bulgaria provides a specific case of macroeconomic adaptation, in which the upcoming membership in the eurozone is not just a formal stage, but a strategic act corresponding to the structural characteristics of the contemporary environment, Radev added, BTA reports.
According to the BNB Governor, in the contemporary economic system, political and market unpredictability is not a temporary deviation, but a sustainable characteristic that forms the new normality. As a result, the focus should be on institutional resilience, rather than short-term forecasting.
Bulgaria, as a small and highly open economy integrated into European production and trade chains, is exposed to external macroeconomic shocks. Although its direct contact with global trade conflicts is limited, the secondary effects through partners such as Germany are significant, the article, published in Bulgarian translation on the BNB website, says.
According to the analysis, in conditions of increased uncertainty, the strategic management of Bulgaria's foreign exchange reserves has demonstrated stability and adaptability. The currency board regime predetermines a high degree of concentration - over 90 percent of the reserves are denominated in euros, and the rest - mainly in gold. The approach is conservative, with investments in short-term instruments with a high credit rating (minimum AA).
Joining the eurozone will require strategic adaptation. When introducing the euro as the national currency, the structure of reserves should be diversified both by currency and by assets, Radev points out.
The new Law on the Bulgarian National Bank will allow for a lowering of the rating threshold for eligible assets (from AA- to A-); expanding the investment horizon with longer-term instruments; introducing new assets - including exchange-traded funds, subject to risk and compliance requirements.
The goal is clear: strengthening the institution's ability to manage liquidity, protect the value of reserves and respond effectively to future systemic challenges, the article also says.
Bulgaria's expected membership in the eurozone is a strategic turning point, as it will integrate monetary policy within the framework of the European Central Bank; it will strengthen macroeconomic stability and trust in public institutions; will eliminate the risk of currency mismatches and limit speculative pressure; will provide access to institutional mechanisms for financial stability such as the European Stability Mechanism, the BNB governor reports.
In conditions of systemic uncertainty, membership in the eurozone offers a stabilizing framework and an institutional anchor, the analysis says.
The depth of global economic fragmentation and persistent uncertainty require an adequate institutional response. For Bulgaria, joining the eurozone represents both a strategic shield and an opportunity for institutional renewal, Dimitar Radev points out.
The risks will not disappear, but will be managed from a higher platform of stability, trust and coordination.
A period lies ahead that will test institutional flexibility, strategic clarity and professional discipline. For the Bulgarian National Bank, the priority remains unchanged: ensuring stability within the current framework and preparing for a future in which adaptability and long-term vision are systemic requirements, the article further states.