Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will seek more support from his allies when he addresses the United Nations and meets Donald Trump this week, but behind the scenes Kiev is quietly preparing for a new phase of the war in which it relies more on itself, writes "Reuters".
Kiev's hopes of winning tough new US sanctions against Russia are fading, and a new pragmatism in Ukraine makes Zelensky's trip less tense than some earlier visits to the United States, with lessons learned from the White House scandal in February.
Frenzied European diplomacy and Ukrainian expressions of regret after the disastrous February meeting have paved the way for the resumption of key exchanges of intelligence and arms sales to the United States authorized by the U.S. president's predecessor.
Yet, intense lobbying has failed to persuade Trump to impose sanctions that would hurt Russia's military economy enough to bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, and Ukrainians are skeptical that the war will end soon.
Ukrainians unsure about the future
Only 18 percent of Ukrainians believe the fighting can end this year, and a sense of uncertainty about the future is widespread in Ukraine, said Anton Grushetsky, head of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology.
Putin has secured some recent diplomatic victories, including a red-carpet welcome to a summit with Trump in Alaska, and there are signs that Ukraine is shifting direction for a new phase of the war in which foreign support is reduced.
A Ukrainian think tank that has previously studied Russia, in order to find targets for government sanctions, is currently conducting analysis to help the military select targets for drone strikes, a senior official revealed.
The source noted that Ukraine has not only faced sanctions setbacks and reduced US aid, but could also lose other allied support in Europe.
In a sign of how Kiev is trying to pressure Russia itself, long-range Ukrainian drones have struck ports and refineries, prompting Russia to warn of impending output cuts for oil producers.
"A very important place"
Zelensky is likely to ask Trump for new US sanctions against Russia today - a day before he addresses the UN General Assembly.
Kiev is also promoting plans for a summit on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula - an event that appears to be aimed at push back on discussion of a peace deal that includes recognizing Crimea as Russian territory.
Putin claims that more than 700,000 Russian troops are deployed on the front lines in Ukraine and Russia occupies approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory.
Moscow demands all of that territory and more before it will consider negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. That is anathema to most Ukrainians.
Ukrainian authorities presented their work ahead of Zelensky’s arrival yesterday as pragmatic diplomacy, not preparation for a trip that will lead to success or failure.
"New York is the platform every September. This is an extremely important place to be," said First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsia.
"I wish it were more expedient, but there are never easy solutions to conflicts of this magnitude. So I think we won't come back from New York, all of us, with easy solutions. And we will continue to work hard after New York," he added.
Battlefield setbacks and heavy losses
Russian forces, which invaded in February 2022, have been advancing in eastern Ukraine for the past two years, but have failed to capture the bastion city of Pokrovsk, their goal for months.
Although reduced, US support remains essential for Ukraine, and Kiev's allies have concerns about the depth of its reserves of military personnel.
A senior European diplomat said that intelligence sharing with the US and a new mechanism for purchasing US weapons from Ukraine are essential for its forces to endure.
Zelensky said the first weapons delivered under this mechanism include Patriot air defense missiles and HIMARS rocket launchers, and that Ukraine has so far has secured over $2 billion in financing for U.S.-made weapons.
Ukraine's more confident stance on weapons is evident from the less assertive tone of Zelensky's recent public statements, the senior diplomat reported.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine's defense minister in 2019-2020, noted that European strategy has often focused on the idea of providing deterrence to prevent future conflicts, but that Putin has no interest in stopping Russia's war in Ukraine and therefore Kiev's strategy is to prevent Russian forces from succeeding.
"The strategy is to neutralize Russia," he explained. "This would lead to the possibility of stabilizing the situation and, hopefully, starting a recovery, at least (to some extent), without Russia agreeing to stop the war".
Like a ritual dance
A former senior Ukrainian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, expressed doubt that Trump would sanction Russia at all and said that Ukraine would be better off focusing on strengthening its armed forces.
He ignored weeks of negotiations between Europe, the United States and Ukraine on security guarantees that would protect Ukraine for a post-war settlement.
Likening the process to a ritual dance, he said: "It would be very beautiful if people weren't killed.".