When the electricity in Cuba went out and millions of people were left without power, the initial reactions outside the island nation again followed a familiar scenario - another failure of an economic system that fails to adapt to the new realities of the 21st century.
But this reading seems to avoid the bigger picture and the larger problem in international and geopolitical terms. In these plans, the crisis is not an isolated incident, but part of a long process of accumulated tension between internal restrictions and external pressure in Cuba, writes "Al Jazeera".
The country's energy deficit is the result of a combination of outdated infrastructure, fuel shortages and difficult access to international markets, the latter of which is undoubtedly due to the US-Israeli war in Iran.
The latest delivery of Russian oil, about 730,000 barrels, temporarily stabilized Cuba's energy system, but only for a short period. What happened next? The fact that other planned supplies are being redirected to Venezuela shows how fragile and weak the logistical chain that supports Cuba's energy sector is.
At the same time, the US embargo remains a key structural factor that determines Cuba's economic opportunities as an island nation.
Regardless of political ambitions in Washington, restrictions on trade, investment and financial transactions create an environment in which Cuba operates in a permanent mode of limited access to resources. This turns any external supply into a geopolitical act, not just an economic operation.
At the same time as the island nation's difficulties, the US maintains a visible presence in the Caribbean region, including through naval patrols that monitor key energy supply routes.
Although officially speculated about regional security, the American presence is perceived as additional pressure at a time when Cuba is extremely vulnerable.
US President Donald Trump's political rhetoric about Cuba, that it is the next country in his crosshairs, further escalates tensions between the two capitals.
Statements that speak of "taking" or "control" over Cuba by the US president, regardless of their context, fit into a long historical line. Trump views the island as a strategic zone, not as an equal political entity. This perception is rooted in decades of ideological opposition and the geopolitical scandal that the US president can cause.
In Cuba, the reality is much more complex than external interpretations and Trump's claims.
The Cuban state operates in a dual contradictory economic model - a formal state system and a large informal economy that actually supports a significant part of daily life. This includes private services, small commercial networks, barter practices and a strong dependence on remittances from abroad.
Over time, this model in Cuba has created new social inequalities that do not always coincide with the official policies that the island state professes. Access to resources, medicines and even basic services often depends not on the state, but on external connections. This is gradually changing the social structure and creating new divisions in society.
If a brief historical retrospective were to be made, Cubans' dissatisfaction with the crisis in the state and social inequalities erupted back in 2021, when the island was shaken by the largest protests in decades.
For the first time, the main demands were directly related to daily survival - food, electricity and basic freedoms. The authorities' response was swift and firm, which left lasting consequences on social dynamics and trust in institutions.
Despite internal difficulties and socially unjust life, Cuba continues to have an international presence that often remains outside the focus of Western debate. Through medical missions, the country has sent thousands of specialists to dozens of countries, including Africa and the Caribbean, where they play a key role in resource-limited health systems. This form of "medical diplomacy" is becoming one of the most enduring instruments of Cuban foreign policy.
During global crises such as the Ebola epidemic and the COVID-19 pandemic, Cuba has not only sent medical teams but also developed its own solutions that it shares with other countries. This creates a counterpoint to the image of an isolated and dependent country, showing another side of the same system.
Cuba is a difficult country to analyze, as it can be explained as both vulnerable and active, dependent and influential, limited internally but present externally. Depending on the point of view, Cuba can be described as a failed model or as a sustainable alternative project.
Today's crisis, which is much more serious and deepening, puts the island country under serious strain. Energy shortages, external pressure, military activity in the region and internal social tensions are accumulating, creating a situation in which every new development has the effect of a time bomb that will explode very soon. Whether it will explode in Trump's hands, or he will be able to appropriate whatever he wants - remains to be seen.
And at this very moment, Cuba finds itself once again at the center of a larger geopolitical situation of uncertainty that goes beyond the economy and moves into the sphere of influence. The question is no longer just how the island will survive the crisis, but what its role will be in the distribution of power in the region - and whether the current situation is not the beginning of a new stage in the battle for the island.
And once again - whether Cuba is next, or the island will "sink" Trump in the American head of state's attempts to expand its spheres of influence, the clock is ticking. In whose favor, though? Trump's or Havana's?