Ultimatum or bluff! Is this what we see in Prime Minister Rumen Radev's game, which is too high a game against the US for "planes for visas"? The statement "planes for visas", included in a conversation with US President Donald Trump, can be viewed simultaneously as diplomatic pressure, a domestic political signal and an attempt at a transactional deal with the United States in a style that is indeed reminiscent of the way Donald Trump often approaches international relations.
But whether this is a real "ultimatum" and whether it has a chance of producing a result - these are two different questions.
First, Radev's logic itself is clear: Bulgaria provides a strategic asset - the opportunity for American military aircraft to stay at the "Vasil Levski" airport in Sofia, and in return demands a political dividend on one of the most sensitive issues in Bulgarian-American relations - the visa regime. This is a classic "favor for a favor" scheme. In this sense, Radev is clearly trying to speak in a language that Trump understands: not values, but a deal.
The problem is that the asymmetry between the two topics is enormous.
For the US, access to Bulgarian infrastructure is a tactical issue that can be changed according to operational necessity. For Bulgaria, the abolition of visas is a strategic and symbolic goal with long-standing public importance.
This means that Sofia is putting on the table an asset that is temporary and replaceable - the "parking" of aircraft, in exchange for a request that requires a complex administrative and political procedure in Washington - the abolition of visa regime.
Here comes the most important point: the visa regime is not a solution that the American president can simply “sign“, even if he wants to. The visa-free travel program has legal criteria - visa denial rate, data exchange, security standards, administrative procedures. The president can speed up the political process, but he cannot single-handedly impose it in the way that, for example, he negotiates tariffs or trade conditions. In other words, Radev is trying to make a deal with an asset over which Trump has limited direct control.
The second important aspect is time. If the permission for the “parking“ of American planes in Sofia expires on May 31, then the window is too short for a real diplomatic exchange. That is why this looks more like a political signal than a real ultimatum. A real ultimatum assumes that the other side has both the need and the time to react under pressure. At the moment, there are no clear signs that the US is in such a situation. situation.
Here the issue of Iran also comes to the agenda.
If American operations against Iran have de-escalated or are on pause, the strategic value of the aircraft in Sofia is sharply reduced. They were used mainly for aerial refueling and logistical support of operations in the Middle East - according to the words of appreciation of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In the absence of active strikes, the need for them to remain in Bulgaria weakens. And when one side does not feel an urgent need, the pressure loses strength.
This makes the following scenario very likely: Washington simply avoids escalation, does not enter into a public dispute with Radev, but quietly redistributes or withdraws part of the equipment, without tying the issue to visas. For the US, such an approach would be easier than creating the impression that visa policy is being “traded“ for military bases.
Namely Here lies the weak point of the Bulgarian position. If the Americans accept the "planes for visas" relationship, it would seem like a precedent: a NATO ally sets conditions on operational military cooperation in exchange for domestic political gain. Washington traditionally avoids encouraging such logic, because it could be repeated by other partners.
(b.r. - Bulgaria is not the only European Union country whose citizens still need visas for the United States. According to current data from the European Commission, citizens of three EU member states are still not included in the American Visa Waiver Program: Bulgaria, Cyprus and Romania. That is, Bulgaria is not alone, although the topic in our country is particularly sensitive politically. However, another clarification is important: in recent years, Romania was very close to being included in the program, and at different times the American administration has signaled that Bucharest is progressing on the technical criteria. Therefore, in the public debate, the impression sometimes remains that Bulgaria is mainly “outside the club“. Also, until recently, Croatia was in a similar situation, but it is now in the American visa-free program. Separately, the EU officially recognizes that there is no full visa reciprocity with the US precisely because of Bulgaria, Cyprus and Romania. What is the EU doing to protect the three countries… This is another interesting question, which is rather rhetorical?)
On the other hand, Radev is probably winning domestically. The visa issue has broad public support, and his presentation as a leader who "demands something specific from America" fits into his image as a more independent and sovereign-minded head of state. That is, even without a real result, the very setting of a condition has political value for the Bulgarian audience.
As for Trump, there is another nuance. Yes, he likes deals. But he likes deals in which the other side offers something that the US can hardly replace. Bulgaria has geographical importance, but it is not an indispensable factor for American military logistics. If the operational need has decreased, then the motivation for compromise has also decreased.
Therefore, the most likely conclusion is the following:
Radev is not issuing a classic ultimatum, but rather political pressure with limited real leverage, as well as a good PR move.
If American operations around Iran are in a lull (note - Trump as president can wage war within 60 days, which in the case of Iran has passed, and then the US Senate must say "yes" or "no" to continue), Washington will probably not consider the issue important enough to enter into a deal.
The visa issue will almost certainly not be resolved by May 31, because the mechanism is longer and institutional.
Most likely, the US will avoid public confrontation, and can simply reduce or relocate the military presence if it is no longer critically needed.
The political effect of the statement is greater in Bulgaria than in Washington. Ultimately, this is a move that seems strong on a rhetorical level in Bulgaria, but may prove weak as a real tool for pressure, especially if the American side no longer feels an immediate need to base these aircraft in Sofia.