NATO did not intervene in the US-Israeli war against Iran, but nevertheless the conflict revealed cracks in the alliance's defenses that would make it difficult in a possible clash with Russia, writes "Politico".
" These combined lessons should lead us to a better understanding of how to guide the development of capabilities, he believes.
European military officials have warned that Moscow could be in a position to attack an alliance member by 2029, underscoring the urgent need for combat readiness and political cohesion across the alliance.
POLITICO spoke to a dozen diplomats, current and former NATO officials and defense experts, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity, to speak freely on the sensitive issue of compiling a list of the alliance’s shortcomings exposed by the Middle East war.
Ammunition Depletion
The war with Iran has sharply highlighted NATO’s ammunition shortages. The United States has used up about half of its total inventory of Patriot air defense missiles. French officials have warned that their stockpiles of Aster and Mica missiles are running out in the first two weeks of the war. Defence firms such as Rheinmetall and MBDA have also pointed to rising demand and looming shortages.
If the US continues to focus on the Indo-Pacific, significant assets will be taken out of Europe, a senior NATO diplomat said. We have too few of these assets, he added.
If NATO does not change course, Russia will quickly drag us out of the war, warned Calvin Bailey, a member of the British parliament’s defence committee for the ruling Labour Party.
With 6,000 to 7,000 drones being produced per month, NATO allies will run out of high-quality air defence missiles within weeks, said Justin Bronk, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. This creates an “urgent need for more affordable air-to-air interceptors,” he added, arguing that NATO should focus on cheaper alternatives to the Patriot, such as the laser-guided AGR-20 missile, and build passive defenses such as hardened concrete aircraft shelters.
The alliance’s ammunition shortage will be a major issue at a summit of NATO leaders in July.
Air superiority
Iran’s ability to continue to strike its Gulf neighbors with more than 5,000 missile and drone attacks despite a U.S. air campaign shows the clear limits of expectations that it can bomb a country into submission with conventional aircraft, said Peter Wezeman, a senior fellow at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. peace.
In response, NATO must rethink its air dominance and seek creative solutions to deter Russia, such as accelerating investment in long-range precision strike weapons capable of targeting Moscow's drone production and military sites deep inside the country, said Justin Bronk.
"If we can achieve air superiority over a contested area, then even Europe alone could devastate Russian forces on the ground," he said, proposing increased purchases of U.S.-made AGM-88G missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers.
The war in Iran has already sparked new discussions within NATO about the need for greater deep strike capabilities, the two diplomats from the alliance said, as negotiations on the organization's next four-year defense planning cycle begin this year.
Weak naval forces
The limited deployment of forces from Europe’s support for its Gulf allies also illustrates the apparent lack of investment in NATO’s naval forces. The most obvious example is the United Kingdom. After taking three weeks to deploy its destroyer HMS Dragon to the Mediterranean, the ship was sent back to port due to a technical problem.
This is not surprising. Britain’s chief of naval staff, General Gwynne Jenkins, admitted last month that the Royal Navy was not ready for war, claiming that other allies were also lagging behind. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has previously said that less than half of his country’s fleet is operational.
"From 2022 onwards, we are focusing much more on land forces. And now suddenly we are finding that the availability of the fleet in NATO is quite poor, notes Ed Arnold, a former NATO official.
In any conflict with Moscow, naval forces would be essential in pursuing submarines near Russia's northern Kola Peninsula and neutralizing ships equipped with long-range Kalibr cruise missiles, said Siddharth Kaushal, a maritime security expert at RUSI.
NATO also needs to improve shared ship maintenance facilities, address personnel shortages and invest in flexible vessels that can be adapted to different missions - inspired by the Netherlands' multi-role support ship program, he added.
Continuing divisions
The war has also widened divisions within NATO, with Europe ignoring U.S. President Donald Trump's requests for military support, prompting Washington to draw up options for retaliation.
This is raising new concerns within the alliance, the two NATO diplomats said. Meanwhile, Trump continues to criticize NATO, calling it a "paper tiger".
The risk after Iran, ED Arnold stressed, is that the president could say "We won't interfere this time" or commit only to a limited troop deployment if Moscow invades.
In response, European capitals should adopt the same transactional approach as Trump, said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary general. They should clearly tie their support for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to Washington's commitment to NATO. He also warned against continuing to appease Trump, a key element of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's approach to the US president. "The time for flattery is over," Rasmussen said.
The Importance of Ukraine
Within days of the Iran war, Ukraine sent its own drone experts, well-versed in using indigenous interceptors to shoot down Iranian Shahed drones used by Russia to aid countries in the Middle East. Kiev eventually signed ten-year defense partnerships with the Gulf states.
NATO has rapidly expanded its institutional ties with Ukraine, ranging from a joint training and research center in Poland to military visits to Kiev and a newly created industrial program to acquire innovative technologies from the country, called UNITE-Brave NATO.
The alliance must now work to create a "belt" of anti-drone assets closer to the Russian border as a first line of defense, Justin Bronk said.
He could also do more to strengthen his industrial relations with Ukraine, the two NATO diplomats said, including more funding for UNITE-Brave.
"Ukraine acts as a security provider. The war in Iran "proved that", said a third NATO diplomat.