Christina Harvard of the American Institute for the Study of War believes that the campaign that the Ukrainians have been waging recently, which is associated with the intensification of strikes on targets behind the front line, is “a new development in the war.” According to her, it has a devastating impact on logistics, on supply chains.
"There are already reports that the military in the Zaporizhia region is receiving less fuel, less ammunition, less of everything they need. Supply difficulties are also observed in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainians have practically managed to cut off the supply routes to Crimea,” she says. “If Ukraine continues to strike, it is entirely possible that the Kerch Bridge connecting Russia and Crimea will become unusable or very dangerous. We are observing a coordinated campaign aimed specifically at the infrastructure facilities near the bridge that ensure its functioning, so this is definitely one of the tasks set“, Harvard noted.
Let us recall that since June 26, Crimea has been in a state of emergency – introduced against the backdrop of the strikes by the Ukrainian army and the resulting shortage of fuel and food supplies on the peninsula.
Crimea - "Russia's weak point"
According to Mark Galeotti, a British historian and professor emeritus at University College London, Ukrainians consider Crimea to be Russia's weak point. “Maintaining its supply, providing fuel, electricity, water, etc. is very difficult. That is why the Ukrainians hope that by increasing the pressure on Crimea, they will force Putin to take the peace talks seriously and conduct them in accordance with their conditions,“ he told DW.
“Of course, there is a danger that this will push Putin to escalate, but this is precisely the risky game that now prevails in Ukraine's position“, the expert added. At the same time, the talks about returning Crimea by military means, in his opinion, are “more a means of psychological warfare than real preparation for such a step“. Since this will not only be difficult – it will be a step to which Putin will simply be forced to respond with escalation. “The loss of Crimea would be too humiliating for him – so I think from the Ukrainian perspective it's about pressure, not reconquest.“
Regarding the possible escalation of the war, Mark Galeotti points out: “Putin has many options. He could mobilize hundreds of thousands of additional reservists, even if that would be a very unpopular and destructive political step. If we talk about the other options, the nightmare scenario, which is very unlikely, would be the use of tactical nuclear weapons. He has many options, but all of them would harm him. This is important in terms of assumptions about how far Putin is willing to go“.
On the fuel shortage in Russia and Crimea
“The Ukrainians have attacked Russian refineries before, but the difference now is that they have increased the number of them and improved the quality of their drones and their range“, points out Christina Harvard. Thus, they cause great damage to the refineries with their constant attacks, and increasingly deeper into Russia, and Russia's air defenses are not able to protect everyone, the expert explains.
As a result of these attacks, a fuel shortage appeared not only in Crimea, but also in many Russian regions. However, Mark Galeotti notes that ordinary Russians suffer most from it, while the military continues to receive what they need. “You could say that Vladimir Putin doesn't care at all what ordinary citizens think - after all, they “have to suffer to defend their homeland“. But “this situation is leading to new feelings not only among the country's population, but also among its leadership - that things are not developing in the right direction.“
What is happening to Russia's economy?
According to Galeotti, although ordinary Russians remain under the threat of repression during protests, voices can already be heard among the country's leadership saying that the war has reached a threshold beyond which investing additional resources will have less and less effect. And these people are asking themselves: “Maybe it's worth freezing the front line, holding on to what we've got, and starting negotiations?“.
So far, there are no signs that Putin is wavering, the expert believes. “But the fact that such things are being said publicly is telling.“
Does this mean that Ukraine's operation, designed to force Russia to make peace, is yielding the expected result? According to Galeotti, “there is no reason to believe that Russia's economy is on the verge of collapse, that the masses are ready to revolt or that a coup d'état will occur“. But he doubts that the country will be able to endure the war on its current scale for much longer. “Another year will pass and it will turn out that the damage done to the Russian economy is too great. That is, it is good to at least think about alternatives.“
Mark Galeotti also says the following: “Previously, Russia had three main advantages that allowed it to cope with crises: practically unlimited funds, Putin's personal legitimacy and a variety of security services. Now all of them are in question. The internal security system is still quite stable, but it is fragile, as it would not be able to cope with unexpected crises“.
Is there a danger of a riot?
–Putin is a man who saw not only the collapse of the Soviet Union, but also of East Germany. This is the basis of his great fear - that even if you have all kinds of security services and secret police, they will not step in to protect you - so even a relatively small protest can turn into something dramatic“, Mark Galeotti tells DW.
He thinks that the West still has an inaccurate image of Putin. “We continue to perceive him as the villain from a James Bond movie, as a man with a grand Machiavellian plan. But at the same time, we must admit that he made a disastrous step by invading Ukraine in February 2022 with the idea of winning a quick and easy victory there. Of course, he will try to undermine Ukraine's positions, spread discontent towards the West, etc. But he does not have a strong plan, he is simply trying to test one or the other, being in a rather weak position.“
Author: Christian Tal