Marine Le Pen is playing a risky game - she hopes that the final decision on her sentence will be made after the election, which she is confident she will win. But does she really hold all the cards in her hand?
The leader of the far-right party "National Rally" Marine Le Pen has announced that she will run for president of France in the upcoming elections. Although the Paris Court of Appeal reduced her sentence on appeal, she was still sentenced to two years of probation and one year of imprisonment, which she must serve under house arrest.
Le Pen had said that if she had to wear an electronic bracelet, she would not run for president because she would not be able to run an effective campaign. This no longer seems to be a factor for her.
Le Pen's poker
Le Pen's decision to be the party's candidate is very risky, writes ARD. She assumes that her next challenge to the court decision before the highest instance of French justice - the Court of Cassation - will lead to the cancellation of her sentence and she will not have to be under house arrest.
The leader of the "National Rally" probably also expects that the final verdict will not come until after the second round of the presidential election - i.e. that whatever it is, she will already have immunity if she wins the election.
Disappointment for Jordan Bardella?
Marine Le Pen's decision has a serious impact on the career of Jordan Bardella, her political protégé. He is more liberal economically and might have been able to attract more voters if he were the candidate of the "National Rally", writes Julia Boruta of the ARD. She is unlikely to be an acceptable alternative for people who saw him as a candidate who could unite some of the centrists, writes ARD.
While Bardella supported Le Pen's efforts to distance the far right from her father's legacy, he sought to win over conservative voters in an attempt to transform the party into a more conventional and business-friendly force, writes "Politico". In polls conducted before the Court of Appeal ruling, he was ahead of his mentor in ratings.
Le Pen, who wants to work for a strong and protectionist state, has opposed Bardella's efforts to soften the party's position on pensions and a tax on windfall profits for energy companies, the European publication notes.
Will Le Pen succeed a fourth time?
This will be Marine Le Pen's fourth presidential campaign. But can she win this time, despite her delicate situation?
So far, polls for the party have looked promising. According to them, both Le Pen and Bardella would win the first round of the April election by a wide margin, collecting between 32 and 38 percent of the vote. The most serious rival is considered to be former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe of the center-right Horizons party. If he faces Le Pen in the second round, his success will depend on whether he can unite both the center-right and the left-wing voters who have previously voted together to prevent a victory for the far-right.
According to a representative of Edouard Philippe's party, quoted by "Politico", Le Pen is the better candidate than Bardella. The reason is that she has built a reputation as a figure who inspires trust. The leader of the far-left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, also has a similar opinion. "Nobody will make fun of her as an opponent," he commented to "Politico". Another confrontation with the judicial system may even give her a specific halo - of an unjustly accused scapegoat, according to politicians from the far-right party.