Russian authorities have denied planning a mass mobilization after reports that thousands have gathered at the "Verkhny Lars" border crossing with Georgia. Is that really the case?
""We do not need a mass mobilization, it is not planned, it is not expected", said Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's official representative to the UN. Nebenzya was commenting on the information that over 20,000 Russians had crossed the "Verkhny Lars" border crossing with Georgia within a day, which has sparked speculation.
"Record traffic" across the border?
Russian customs officials reported that on August 18, "record traffic" passed through the border crossing. The announcement sparked speculation that tens of thousands of Russians were leaving the country for fear of being mobilized. The same thing happened in 2022. Various media outlets and experts expect a new mobilization wave after the State Duma elections in September, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also warned that one is coming.
The Georgian Interior Ministry denied the Russian information and said that the number of citizens who crossed the border was lower - 7,880, and that in fact a larger number of people entered Russia from Georgia - 8,406.
Various explanations for the queues have appeared on the Internet - from the end of vacations to the recent closure of the border due to weather conditions. The Russian Customs Service also published clarifications and indicated that "the statistics include data on both entry and exit from the Russian Federation".
"Currently, there is a greater flow of passengers to the Russian Federation. This is due to the end of the holiday season and the return of a significant number of citizens after vacation. At the same time, traffic leaving the Russian Federation remains intense due to the fact that the tourist season continues," the Federal Customs Service added.
Russia relies on mercenaries
Since September 2022, when nearly 300,000 reservists were mobilized, Russia has relied mainly on mercenaries from home and abroad to fill the gaps on the front. According to Western services, Russia is losing hundreds of soldiers every day. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, this is 1.4 million since the beginning of the war, of which 450,000 have been killed. To fill these gaps, the Kremlin is offering lucrative contracts to people from poor regions of Russia, prisoners, as well as mercenaries from North Korea, Africa and other countries.
The authorities are targeting the "socially marginalized", including those with debts, criminal records or other vulnerabilities, to pressure them into joining the army, human rights activist Alexei Tabalov told the "Guardian". Videos from the Penza region, for example, where some of the most aggressive recruitment methods have been reported, show men being driven away in vans as their relatives protest. Universities, technical colleges and vocational schools are also being encouraged to recruit students for the newly created drone units, the British publication also reports, citing its sources.
The local government has created a kind of pyramid structure, in which not only lucrative contracts are offered to those who sign up for the army, but also to people who recommend a friend and convince them to become part of the Russian military.
Putin clearly wants to avoid mobilization at all costs
Mobilization does not seem to be on the agenda for now for Putin, who risks paying a serious political price if he starts one.
In 2022, it led to mass emigration and a decline in approval for the government. Currently, support for the war in Ukraine is also declining, so Moscow will apparently try to avoid mobilization by any means.