The wars in Ukraine and Iran are increasingly intertwined and pose a risk of broader escalation, according to Christopher Chivis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In his column for The Guardian, he highlights a number of events that show the gradual convergence of the two conflicts and the growing danger of their mutual influence.
The author begins with the situation in Ukraine. According to him, Russia has not yet caused mass casualties among Europeans outside Ukraine, but is getting closer to that scenario. Chivis points to the events of early August near Leipzig/Halle airport in Germany, where two drones with explosives were found near the runway. The author recalls that in 2024, incendiary devices hidden in packages at the same airport caused a fire in a DHL shipment.
"The Trump administration's refusal to end the war with Iran, however, contradicts its efforts to end the war in Ukraine. They are heading into the storm, not out of it," the analyst writes.
The author also draws attention to the depletion of US stocks of interceptor missiles due to the war with Iran. According to him, reports of a significant reduction in stocks and deliveries of air defense systems to Ukraine could convince Vladimir Putin that the United States is again distracted from the Middle East. This, in turn, could create a favorable window of opportunity for the Kremlin to intensify strikes against Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine is already directly involved in the confrontation with Iran. As Chivis notes, Kiev has sent 228 specialists and a significant number of drones to the Persian Gulf countries to help repel Iranian drone attacks. In addition, in late July, Ukraine hit an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea. Russia, in turn, provides Iran with intelligence that could increase the effectiveness of its strikes, while Moscow itself has long used Iranian-developed drones in its war against Ukraine.
"Both conflicts are simultaneously escalating and not moving anywhere," the analyst notes. According to the author, this creates the greatest danger: the parties may increasingly rely on military force in an attempt to justify the losses and costs already incurred.
Chivis also mentions the increased coordination between Russia, China and Iran. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met on the eve of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which is also expected to be attended by Iranian representatives. According to the author, Beijing is not necessarily interested in continuing both wars, but at the same time it does not want Russia or Iran to lose and has the opportunity to help them mitigate the consequences of the conflicts.
Chivis believes that a diplomatic warning to Moscow alone is not enough. He calls on Washington to seek real incentives to end both wars, in particular by negotiating a ceasefire with Iran, easing sanctions, and unfreezing assets. Regarding Ukraine, the author suggests a more serious discussion about neutrality and the advisability of continuing the fight for the territories of Donbas that remain under Kiev's control.
In the final part of the publication, the expert quotes historian Odd Arne Westad, who compares the current situation with the world on the eve of World War I.
"The key lesson of the world before 1914 is that regional conflicts that remain unresolved for a long time can become powder kegs that ignite a global conflagration," the warning says.
According to Chivis, it is the intertwining of Russia's war against Ukraine and the conflict over Iran that makes the current situation particularly dangerous. He urges world leaders to take these risks more seriously before regional wars escalate into a much larger crisis.