The presidential candidate pair Iliyana Yotova – Kiril Valchev leads by a small margin over Andrey Gyurov – Georgi Kandev after the first round of the presidential elections. The two pairs will face each other in the runoff on November 1, and the low voter turnout and the passivity of large party electorates outline the main unknowns before the decisive vote.
According to political scientist Lyubomir Stefanov, a large part of GERB voters did not vote in the first round. In his words, this leaves room for a change in the ratio between the two candidates if Andrey Gyurov manages to address these voters directly.
„The situation is much more interesting and dynamic than we imagined. A large part of GERB voters did not vote, there may be surprises in the run-off. If Gyurov can overtake Borisov and appeal to these people, there may be surprises“, said Lyubomir Stefanov.Low turnout brought the results closer
Stefanov identified the low turnout as the main lesson from the vote. According to him, the higher turnout in previous elections did not prove a lasting change in voter behavior, but rather was an exception to the established pattern.
The political scientist also linked the demotivation to public messages about the fairness of the elections. He commented that when the Minister of the Interior talks about democratic elections, this can leave citizens with the impression that previous votes were paid or manipulated.
Social anthropologist Haralan Alexandrov also pointed to voter passivity as an important factor. According to him, significant parts of the GERB and MRF electorates stayed away from the vote because a feeling was created that the result was predetermined.
Aleksandrov also noted a difference between the activity in Sofia and that on the periphery of the country. He spoke of a feeling of depression among a part of the electorate, associated with Rumen Radev and Iliyana Yotova, and warned that concepts such as “oligarchy“ are often used with different meanings depending on the political opponent.
Pargov: Yotova did not make a mistake
The chairman of the Strategic Institute for National Policies and Ideas Kaloyan Pargov said that Iliyana Yotova did not make a mistake in the campaign. According to him, her candidacy is supported by “Progressive Bulgaria“ and BSP, and the change in the political system continues.
Pargov pointed out that support for Gyurov among GERB voters is distributed in a ratio of 5 to 1, while among MRF voters the ratio is 8 to 1 in favor of the candidate. He identified Kostadinov as the biggest winner of the first round and stated that the candidate managed to recover lost positions from previous elections.
Finance expert Levon Hampartzumyan placed the result in a broader political context. According to him, voters who are more politically sensitive understand that the presidential vote can set off new events.
“When we have a prime minister for whom murders are something normal, related to the fight against the oligarchy, it is better to have a president who is a counterbalance“, said Levon Hampartzumyan.By the runoff, the two headquarters must attract not only their staunch supporters, but also those who did not vote in the first round. It is this group, together with the voters of the eliminated candidates, that may prove decisive for the choice between Yotova and Gyurov.
Sources: bgonair.bg