In the worst case, Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv will have to withdraw behind the Dnieper . That would mean splitting the country, says a military expert. Will the battle for Kharkiv decide the outcome of the entire war in Ukraine?
This battle could become a turning point for the outcome of the war in Ukraine. The advance of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region is the beginning of this decisive battle, wrote the prestigious edition "Politico" on Monday. According to him, the stake is not only the preservation of the second largest Ukrainian city under the control of Kiev. This battle may also affect the determination with which the West supports Ukraine in the war.
Certain circles in Europe may use the current Russian successes in the Kharkiv region to put pressure on Kiev to start negotiations with Moscow. "Politico" cited several high-ranking Ukrainian officers as saying that a front-line breach could weaken the Ukrainian military's resolve and undermine morale.
Whether a new full-scale offensive of the Russian army north of Kharkiv begins or whether this is just an intermediate stage before the expected summer offensive of the Russians, events on the front will show, Austrian military historian Colonel Markus Reisner tells DV.
What is the purpose of the Russian forces near Kharkov
Regarding the warning of the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence, General Budanov, that in the Sumy region Russian units can deliver a more powerful blow than in the Kharkiv region, the Austrian military expert says that the Russian army group "North" operating in the region numbers between 50 and 70 thousand soldiers, who have nearly 400 tanks, 1,000 armored vehicles, 1,000 artillery pieces, 25 helicopters and 25 fighter jets.
These forces are pursuing three clear goals, Reisner says: “First, they will try to create a buffer zone north of Kharkiv. At a later stage, this area will allow Russian units to use it as a springboard for their larger offensive. And last but not least, it will further complicate the Ukrainian defense, as the now existing 1,200 km front line will increase by another 200 km. Practically, this will mean that Ukraine will have to redirect its resources from Chasov Yar or Avdeevka to Kharkiv, and possibly also to Sumy Oblast.
What forces do the Russians have
?
Reisner does not think that these between 50,000 and 70,000 Russian soldiers will be enough to carry out a Russian breakthrough to Volchansk, Kharkiv and Sumy, but notes the following: “What we are observing now is typical of the war of attrition, led by the Russians. They are trying to create permanent jobs for the Ukrainians so that they cannot accumulate any operational reserves that they will need at a later stage, for example in 2025, when they can make a new attempt to liberate their occupied territories . This requires the presence of strategic reserves - such as those needed for Ukraine's failed summer offensive.
Regarding criticism that Ukraine has not built a strong defense line in the area now breached by Russian units, Markus Reisner says: “It is a bit more complicated than it seems. First, the defense lines are not built directly on the border, because in that case they would come under continuous fire from Russian units. The Ukrainian defense is built further in, in depth. Thus, a certain "gray zone" arose, which was successfully occupied by the Russian troops. In the next few days, maybe even in the next week, we will see if the first line of defense of the Ukrainian armed forces can withstand the pressure of the Russian army. From this we will also be able to conclude whether the decision to build defense lines deeper into Ukrainian territory was correct.
Ukrainians' weakest point
Ukrainians' weakest point at the moment is resources of any kind, Reisner believes – the shortage of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery systems and ammunition for them, as well as soldiers trained to work with these systems. In addition, defenders need combat-capable aviation necessary for air support for strikes against advancing ground forces, as well as short-, medium-, and long-range air defense.
Russian attacks with FAB aerial bombs are very painful for the Ukrainians because they stop all their attempts to advance. Therefore, an effective air defense is of utmost importance for the Ukrainians, adds the Austrian colonel. If the Russians start – in parallel with its offensive in Donbass and in the Kharkiv region – and an offensive in the Sumy region, this will make the task of the Ukrainians even more difficult, as they will have to divert resources to this region as well – that is, brigades and battalions with the appropriate equipment, adds the military expert and observer.
Will Ukraine be forced to negotiate?
In response to this question of DV, Markus Reisner says that the question is based on what price will have to be paid. In a war of attrition, everything can change and very quickly – because the situation is now on edge. Things depend on the amount of resources available or lacking: “If there comes a time when resources are exhausted, events can unfold very quickly. The only truly reliable line of defense Ukraine has is the Dnieper. In the worst case scenario, Ukrainian forces will have to withdraw behind the Dnieper in an organized manner. This would mean dividing the country”, Reisner says.
According to him, the Russians do not have enough people to make a breakthrough and penetrate deeply into Ukrainian territory. So they follow the tactics of war of attrition. The appointment of Andrey Belousov as Minister of Defense is a clear signal that Russia is betting on a prolonged war, says Colonel Markus Reisner.