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F-16 in the sky over Ukraine! Why won't the long-awaited fighter jets change the course of the war soon?

Ukraine's military has worked hard to reduce the threat to incoming fighter jets in recent months by attacking Russian air defenses

Jun 27, 2024 18:33 165

F-16 in the sky over Ukraine! Why won't the long-awaited fighter jets change the course of the war soon?  - 1
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About two years after Ukraine asked its allies for F-16 fighter jets to fight Russian forces, the first planes they are expected to arrive by next month, reports "Reuters".

The length of the process - from buying the US-designed planes and training Ukrainian pilots to fly them - has frustrated Kiev.

Russia had time to prepare defenses to try to nullify the impact of the F-16, and Ukraine had to survive with a depleted air force.

Here are some facts about how the F-16s can help Ukraine and what obstacles still stand in the way of their effective deployment:

Potential Impact

Some analysts say the F-16s alone will not be a turning point in the war, which began with the invasion of Russian forces in February 2022.

"You're going to have to separate the symbolism from the actual impact on the battlefield -- which will be helpful but modest, especially early on," said Mark Kancian, senior adviser in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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Sergiy Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, a non-governmental research group, indicated that at least 60 aircraft would be needed for significant operations as Ukraine tries to push Russian aviation out of its borders.

MP Alexandra Ustinova, who heads the Kyiv Parliamentary Committee on Arms and Munitions, estimated that Ukraine would need nearly 120 F-16s to significantly increase its air capacity.

According to experts, while pilots gain experience in Ukrainian skies and the military builds the necessary air infrastructure, the initial deliveries could at least help Ukraine strengthen its air shield.

"This will provide some air defense capability and depth, potentially also helping to intercept Shaheds (Iranian-made drones) and cruise missiles. "Although it's a very expensive way to do it in terms of munitions," said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute.

The Ukrainian military has been working hard to reduce the threat to incoming F-16s in recent months by attacking Russian air defenses, Kuzan said.

"The shaping of the battlefield, especially in the south, is already underway," he pointed out. "Ukraine has the capabilities to carry out systematic attacks on Russia's largest air defense complexes.

Cancian, however, expects Ukraine to try to breach Russia's defenses just before the planned F-16 attacks, not much sooner.

Pilots and support

Training will be critical.

"You can have very fast planes, but if they don't have effective weapons and an aircrew to use them with effective tactics, then they're just going to be shot down en masse,'' Bronk summed up.

Ukrainian F-16 pilot training schedule is among highlights of supply discussions and pledges for more than 70 aircraft.

By the end of the year, Ukraine expects to have at least 20 pilots ready to fly the F-16, Ustinova said.

"It's hard to ask for more planes when you don't have people to fly them," she admitted, adding that initially Ukraine will have more F-16s than qualified pilots.

"Waiting in line for ten years for our pilots to be trained is not good.

U.S. officials have directed questions about training to Ukraine and noted that pilots can be trained in Europe. However, Bronk said that NATO's capacity is already stretched.

He added that aircraft maintenance is an even more pressing challenge than training pilots.

According to him, most of the repairs and maintenance will have to be done in Ukraine and will probably have to rely on foreign contractors who know the plane.

Air bases under threat

Russia has already stepped up its attacks on infrastructure that could be used to support and deploy the F-16, some experts said.

"Russia is daily striking all airfields, potential F-16 bases, attempting to damage runways and infrastructure. These strikes have not stopped at least for the last two months," noted Kuzan.

The objectives will become even more valuable when the planes, pilots and support teams arrive. This would likely force Ukraine to deploy missile defenses to protect them, even though it lacks both air defense systems and ammunition.

"We have to accept the fact that airfields will be well protected and civilian objects can be attacked,'' Kuzan said, adding that each base would need at least two Patriot systems and two NASAMS systems to be protected.

"As soon as we build up our flying capabilities, we will push their planes out and the terror will stop. But these two months will be really difficult," Kuzan was emphatic.