“Financial Times”, FT, writes that on March 19, as of 6:15 a.m., “Erdogan's main rival was detained by Turkish police”. It is supplemented with “the government's large-scale repression of the opposition is intensifying”. It is emphasized that Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, has “ahead of Erdogan by a wide margin”.
It defines the decision to arrest as an earthquake, which came at a time when the opposition in the person of the Republican People's /Kemalist/ Party, HRP, was expected on March 23 to choose Imamoglu as a presidential candidate against the current Turkish president in the next elections.
In this regard, the FT says that the HRP's statements are for “a political coup” and draws attention to the fact that this arrest will have an impact on Turkish markets. The fact is that the dollar exchange rate is experiencing records with a dollar for 42 Turkish liras. The Istanbul Stock Exchange website is not accessible, but the stock market has decreased by 6.8%.
In fact, the situation with the detention of Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu began with a search of his home, where 20 police cars were waiting outside the door. The day before, Istanbul University had canceled his diploma, which is one of the requirements for being able to run in the presidential elections. The reason is “absence” and “obvious mistake”. The detained Imamoglu was taken to the Vatan Police Station. “Vatan” Street is closed, a number of metro stations in the metropolis are also closed, and internet access is slow. Social media is also not available.
From his home, Imamoğlu still says that “a handful of minds who are trying to usurp the will of our people used my beloved police officers for evil and dumped hundreds of police officers in front of the doors of the homes of 16 million Istanbul residents. We are facing a great tyranny, but I want you to know that I will not surrender”. Typically Turkish, emotionally and with a raised tone, he uses words like “I love you all very much, I entrust them to my people. Let everyone know that I will stand tall. I will continue to fight against this man and his mind, who uses this entire process as an apparatus”.
The Istanbul Chief Prosecutor's Office reports that the “Anti-Financial Crimes” Directorate has simultaneously conducted arrest, detention, search and seizure procedures against 100 suspects, including “the leader of the criminal organization, suspect Ekrem İmamoğlu, and 95 other suspects for crimes such as bribery, qualified fraud, illegal seizure of personal data, manipulation of tenders, member of a criminal organization, leader of a criminal organization”.
The chairman of the HDP, Özgür Özgel, arrived in Istanbul and made a statement saying “we will not surrender”. He later said that “deciding instead of the nation, substituting the will of the people or using force to prevent it is a coup. There is currently a force that prevents the nation from determining the next president. Our nation loves its country, but if someone turns the country against the nation, the nation will not allow it. The real power is in the nation and it ultimately wins. We will not give up. In the end, what the nation says will happen and Turkey will win”. He is convinced that “those who remain silent will receive the necessary answer at the ballot box”.
The HDP is on a wave “Imamoğlu has already been elected president in the hearts of the nation” and “Imamoğlu will be the president of this country”. But Istanbul is blocked, demonstrations, processions, demonstrations and protests are prohibited, police officers are transported in passenger buses from intercity passenger transport. While Erdogan spoke during an “Iftar” program organized by the National Defense University, Turks say that “Imamoğlu’s detention and his words at that moment exceeded Erdogan’s Iftar program 43 times.”
While the future of Imamoğlu, considered the most popular candidate for president of Turkey, remains unclear, the impact of the decision on the country’s politics and economy is widely discussed. Especially regarding the accusations of ties and support for the PKK.
In the US, Europe and the Middle East, the detention of the mayor of Istanbul has truly become a bombshell on the agenda for both the country and the media around the world. The French AFP points out that “considered the strongest candidate to challenge Erdogan, Imamoglu's career has been marked by a series of politically motivated lawsuits”, but ”his place in Turkish politics is significant”. The Associated Press emphasizes the shock effect of Imamoglu's detention.
Attention is also drawn to the “overreaction of the police”. But it is also recalled that after Erdogan's party, the AKP, suffered significant losses in local elections in March 2024, which fueled calls for early parliamentary elections, the repression began.
Of course, the ruling party rejects claims that the legal actions against opposition figures are politically motivated. However, Reuters agrees with the view that İmamoğlu is “the most popular candidate in Turkey” and that the HDP was preparing to nominate him on March 23 against Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey for more than two decades. İmamoğlu, a two-term mayor of Istanbul, has been designated “a candidate in all future elections”. Reuters even draws a parallel between Erdogan's steps when his political career began with those of Imamoglu as a presidential candidate.
In fact, most commentators in the West express the opinion that even the cancellation of Imamoglu's diploma shows that Erdogan is aware that he cannot achieve an electoral victory. In plain text, it is said that “this decision reflects the audacity of the authorities to dictate what is real and what is not by controlling the state apparatus”.
Something like in Romania with the refusal to allow Calin Georgescu to run in the presidential elections. Whatever one says about him. Both BILD, Bloomberg, the Greek Ekathimerini, and FAZ write about how important Imamoglu is for Turkey. He was re-elected with over 51% of the vote in the mayoral elections in Istanbul. But at this stage it is not clear whether the next presidential elections will be in 2028, when the constitutional deadline is, or whether Erdogan will move them to 2027 to guarantee himself the right to be re-elected president.
Because his mandates are more than those specified in the constitution and only special elections or a decision by the Mejlis, the parliament, can provide him with this right. And it is not at all certain that he will gather enough votes in the Mejlis to schedule special elections. Erdogan generally looks far into the future. It is advisable to make a decision to remove the most popular opponent so that there are no problems during the presidential elections themselves. Whether he will succeed remains to be seen.