The Russian Defense Ministry Claims Victory in Ukraine Is Inevitable. According to its official data, from January 1 to September 25, 2025, Russian forces captured a total of 4,714 sq km: 205 sq km in Luhansk region, 3,308 sq km in Donetsk region, 261 sq km in Zaporizhia region, 175 sq km in Dnipropetrovsk region, 542 sq km in Kharkiv region and 223 sq km in Sumy region, BTA reports.
However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides other estimates - only 3,434 sq km for the same period, including 151 sq km in Luhansk region and 2,481 sq km in Donetsk. Thus, ISW concludes that Moscow is overstating its reported successes by up to 112% in some regions.
Russian forces are preparing for offensives on various fronts - around Kupyansk, Liman, Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk and Zaporozhye, but a lack of resources casts doubt on their ability to conduct large-scale operations simultaneously.
Airspace violations and tensions with NATO
On September 19, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace. An action that Moscow has privately acknowledged to Western diplomats. Russian officials explain the actions as a retaliatory measure for Ukrainian strikes on Crimea. However, the Kremlin publicly denies this and claims that the planes were on a “planned flight“.
Such provocations do not stop there:
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Poland reported a dangerously low flight of Russian fighter jets over its oil platform in the Baltic Sea.
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Denmark recorded the flight of unidentified drones over four airports, which the authorities described as a “hybrid attack“. So far, no Russian responsibility has been proven, but NATO allies have been notified.
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NORAD has detected and tracked Russian Tu-95 bombers and Su-35 fighters near Alaska.
Diplomatic and military signals
Moscow continues to insist to the Donald Trump administration that it can wage war unhindered in Ukraine. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated to Sergei Lavrov that the US expects “meaningful steps“ towards a lasting end to the war.
The Kremlin continues to identify the “root causes” of the conflict as NATO expansion and alleged discrimination against the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev threatened on social media with “funds that bomb shelters will not protect from“.
The Financial Side of War
Documents from the Russian Finance Ministry, cited by Reuters, show that the defense budget for 2026 will be reduced to 12.6 trillion rubles (about $150 billion) compared to 13.5 trillion in 2025. At the same time, taxes will increase - VAT will increase from 20% to 22%, and the tax threshold will be lowered. The measure is expected to bring in an additional 1.2 trillion rubles in revenue.
Despite the smaller budget, the Kremlin is betting on the modernization of the army and the defense industry, including through investments in drones. At the same time, oil and gas revenues, which finance a significant part of the budget, are expected to fall by half compared to previous years due to sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
Russia is already feeling the effects - the country is suffering from fuel shortages, although the authorities are downplaying the problem to their own population.