The office of Kirill Budanov, Director of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GRU), is dark: the lights are off, the blinds are drawn, the only – faint – The lighting comes from a screen on the wall opposite his desk, which is covered with books and folders, Il Foglio reports.
The Italian daily has published an extensive interview with the head of the GRU, Kirill Budanov.
Despite the Russians having tried to assassinate him several times, Budanov continues to work here, at the headquarters of the secret services, on a peninsula located in the center of Kiev and in the middle of the Dnieper, the river that runs through the Ukrainian capital: the only sign of secrecy is the darkness in which this 39-year-old lieutenant general, who has worked in intelligence since 2007, has been wounded three times in combat since 2014 and occasionally takes part in military operations, is immersed.
Budanov does not like pleasantries and unnecessary embellishments, and has a reputation for being laconic and distant, his associates point out: he asks short and precise questions, always getting straight to the point. Let's start right away with Vladimir Putin's winter strategy, the fourth since the large-scale invasion of Ukraine: on the night before the meeting, the siren signaling approaching Russian missiles and drones sounded three times in Kiev, explosions could be heard even in the city center, a power plant was attacked, which left parts of the capital without electricity for the entire next day, and in a village in the region, the house where a 38-year-old mother lived was hit: she died together with her six-month-old daughter and her 12-year-old niece. Shortly before the meeting, in Kharkiv, the Russians hit a kindergarten with 48 children: the teachers managed to take the children to the shelter and save them. “It is no secret that the Russians want to cause a total blackout in Ukraine,” Budanov points out. "The reason is this: in their opinion, these attacks affect the socially vulnerable segments of the Ukrainian population".
"People with middle and high incomes", Budanov continues, "already have all kinds of devices needed to overcome the power outage, inverters and batteries, and some even have private generators with which to heat and light their homes. The military and government structures have also had generators for a long time, but the people affected by the Russian attacks belong to the socially vulnerable segments, those with lower incomes. The Russian leadership wants to achieve a total power outage because it believes that in this way it will create social discontent in the country". This is the dominant theme in our conversation: Putin wants to destroy not only Ukraine, but also all support for Ukraine, both from the Ukrainians and from its allies. Budanov repeatedly stated that the most important thing, concern and at the same time the greatest strength of Ukraine is unity: without it the war cannot be won.
"The Russian leadership wants to achieve total blackout, because it believes that in this way it will create social discontent in the country“.
Kiev has changed its way of waging war – ingenuity, innovation and strategy have allowed Ukraine to hold the front line and strike military and strategic targets on Russian territory with deep strikes.
In recent days, the Ukrainian defense forces have managed to strike the Bryansk chemical plant, which produces gunpowder, explosives and components for rocket fuel, and the Dagestan oil refinery. Budanov states that "deep strikes are focused in two directions: the first is to significantly paralyze the production and refining of Russian oil, which is one of the main sources of income for the Russian budget.
The second line of action is, of course, to target and strike the Russian defense industry and enterprises that produce weapons and equipment for the Russian army". The difference between the Ukrainian and Russian attacks is obvious: "We are not fighting purposefully against the society of the Russian Federation".
The Ukrainian strikes are already yielding results, which is confirmed by the data on Russian exports of hydrocarbons and petroleum products.
"We have almost eliminated them from the gasoline export sector", states the head of the intelligence service of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. The success is due to the fact that Russian air defense is concentrated along the border, in the occupied Ukrainian territories and in defense of Moscow and St. Petersburg: “When the system located along our border is passed, the flight of our drones through the Russian Federation is always trouble-free,” Budanov states.
The next air defense is found in the defense of a specific object: “Now the Russian Federation is trying to increase their number, but the volumes are too large to protect everything“. Budanov points out that looking at the graphs, the Russians are trying to compensate for the damage, “exporting more crude oil and liquefied gas to balance the revenues in their budget“. As for the attacks on the Russian defense industry, “there are effects, but they are less tangible”, he adds. "These effects are harder to read because we are creating problems for the pace of Russian military production".
Last week, during a public meeting, Budanov said that the attacks on Russian territory act as sanctions against Russia, confirming what President Volodymyr Zelensky has also said: the subtext is that Western sanctions have not been enough so far and that the Russian economy is still stable. "The Russian Federation is a very powerful enemy, regardless of what some say and think. I remember very well the opinions that influential Russian military figures had in February 2023", Budanov said, quoting them: "We believed that we had a very powerful army and a weak economy – they pointed out – but we found that it was the opposite“.
The Russian economy is still stable enough to continue the war: “I am not referring only to oil, but to the entire energy sector. Now everyone is talking about reducing dependence on Russian gas, but at the same time, the volumes of Russian liquefied gas exports are growing to such an extent that they compensate for the decrease in gas consumption“.
It is the revenues from the energy industry that allow Russia to continue the war, “assistance from other countries, allies, of course, also matters, but without energy revenues Russia would not be able to continue waging this war. So, speaking only hypothetically, if a real embargo were imposed on Russian hydrocarbons and products derived from hydrocarbons (methane, ethane, propane and butane), the overall picture would be completely different“. In recent days, Ukraine's allies have taken steps forward: on October 22, the US Treasury Department announced the introduction of sanctions against Russian oil giants “ Rosneft “ and “ Lukoil “ and their subsidiaries, and the next day the European Union approved the nineteenth package of sanctions, which also includes an “ energy blockade “. Before moving on to the unity of support of the allies, Italian journalists ask Budanov a specific question, as he likes: is American intelligence helping Ukrainian forces strike deep into Russian territory? Here he is, the laconic Budanov: “ We are all part of this process, “ he answers.
In the summer, some sources of the Italian newspaper stated that a truce was close: this is not just hope, the Ukrainians have learned not to base their strategy on hope, but on information, calculations and realism. But a truce was not achieved.
Budanov confirms that there are possibilities, but explains that many factors must be combined - in Ukraine, in Russia, in the allied countries - and all of them together: only the right combination of these elements at the right time will produce results, otherwise "the war will continue".
Like all Ukrainian leaders, Budanov does not criticize Donald Trump, even as he continues to nurture the illusion of possible negotiations with Vladimir Putin: this self-control, again, is part of an approach based not on hopes or complaints, but on realism. "Whether we like it or not, for the United States Russia and China are world powers. Russia is nothing from an economic point of view, but it has military power; China is both – economic and military power.
And America does not want to worsen its position in any way, it cares primarily about its own interests, America first, and we must take this priority into account. If you ask me: do we like this? The answer is obvious. But for them, America comes first, and we cannot fail to take this into account. But we must not forget another thing: without the support of the United States, who knows what would have happened here, here in our country“.
Meanwhile, Trump's enthusiasm for Putin, from the phone call on October 16 to the preparations for the meeting between the two in Budapest, has already disappeared: “Every time I talk to Vladimir, we have good conversations, but they don't lead anywhere“, said the American president during one of his (very frequent) meetings with journalists at the White House.
Trump's proposal coincides with that of many European leaders: to stop the conflict on the current front line.
Would this be a good solution for Ukraine?
In the dim light, it is not easy to see how and how much Budanov's expression changes, but as he speaks, his gaze blurs: "It is difficult to answer this question, because its meaning falls almost into the realm of philosophy. For me, losing one square millimeter of our land is a bad result. But if we accept other points of view, then certainly saving thousands and thousands of deaths is a good thing". We know what the Russians are doing in the occupied territories, we know about the torture, the indoctrination, the suppression of all freedoms, and that is why it is painful, unbearable for Ukrainians to condemn other Ukrainians to live under the Russian regime. But on the other hand, there are lives to be saved.
For Europe, for Russian attacks on EU countries, for the so-called "hybrid war", which includes sabotage, cyberattacks, drones and military aircraft in our airspace: what does Putin want to achieve?
"The answer is easy, Budanov says, the dark veil has disappeared – in military science this type of attack is called "reconnaissance by combat" and the goals are two, or actually three, although one of them is more psychological and is for internal use: "Putin is preparing the Russians, he wants to destroy in their minds the idea that Europe is worth something, that Europe is strong".
The drones in the sky have a practical purpose:
"The Russians are testing your reaction, your ability to make decisions, your readiness to use force. Meanwhile, they conduct reconnaissance, discover your systems, understand how they function and where they are located“. In other words, this is a double test - political and military. – But if we take everything together - drones, sabotage in factories and railways, cyberattacks - we see that the goal of the Russians is to provoke anti-war sentiment in European countries and in your society.
And meanwhile, the Russians are sowing the idea among the European peoples that one should not enter into conflict with Russia. I am not saying this, but the Russian opinion on the matter is such. And how does Europe respond to this double test, how do you assess the reaction? Budanov's answer is laughter. Full, spontaneous. We move on to the next question, he says, and the cold, aloof, and silent Ukrainian agent continues to smile.
How can Ukraine help the Europeans defend themselves, since they are defending themselves?
"Theoretically, we can help you, but as long as the war continues, our options are quite limited. This question concerns the future and the change in the security architecture in Europe. From a geographical point of view, the answer is obvious: it is in everyone's interest for Ukraine to be as strong as possible, to serve as a buffer or a shield, or whatever you want to call it. This is how Europe will save itself. At the moment, we are helping by sharing our defense experience, but if Russia becomes more active - and it is preparing for this - then a completely different response from the Europeans will be needed.
"If there is unity, Ukrainians also feel it, and this strengthens the unity of our society. And let's be honest: under these conditions, no one can defeat us.“
By this point, it should be clear that strengthening Ukraine's defense is in the interests of the allies, and according to Budanov, this directly depends on maintaining unity, on the collective and lasting support of Ukraine's allies. "The first thing we need is to preserve the unity of the world in support of us, and this, by the way, is the most difficult thing. If there is unity, then the issues of financial support, material support such as equipment, and perhaps even direct military support are negotiable and can be resolved, they will just change over time“, but if there is no unity, everything falls apart, because “external unity affects internal unity here, in Ukraine, in our society.
So, if the support is strong and united, Ukrainians also feel it, and this strengthens the unity that still exists in our society. And let's be honest: in these conditions, no one can defeat us“.
The conversation ends with an appeal to the Italians. Budanov states that Ukraine continues to need, first of all, the Samp/T anti-aircraft systems: “We have a critically low quantity of these missiles“. Everything is needed, a lot is needed, the Italians must understand it, know it, feel it. "I will quote one of your national heroes– Budanov points out – Giuseppe Garibaldi: "Here Italy is either created or one dies", quoting Garibaldi's words at Calatafimi in 1860 to give courage and strength to his men at a critical moment in the battle against the Bourbons. "Here, this also applies to us, "here Ukraine is created or one dies", declares Budanov, who is a Hero of Ukraine, awarded the Golden Star in 2024 by Zelensky for his personal courage and heroism in the defense of Ukraine.
The Director of Intelligence stands up, now the paintings, photographs, statuettes, diplomas, books, and his face become visible.