The ongoing US shutdown is affecting US arms exports to NATO allies and Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned.
Axios reported on November 9, citing US State Department estimates, that the US government shutdown has delayed more than $5 billion worth of arms exports to support NATO allies and Ukraine, including AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, Aegis integrated naval combat systems and HIMARS rocket launchers to allies such as Denmark, Croatia and Poland.
Axios reported that the ultimate destination of these weapons is unclear, but noted that NATO allies are purchasing some American weapons to provide them to Ukraine.
High A State Department official told Axios that the U.S. government shutdown is also delaying congressional approval of new arms sales, as government officials involved in the process are on leave.
The senior State Department official said the delayed transactions include both direct U.S. government arms sales to NATO allies and licensing of private U.S. defense companies to export weapons.
ISW could not confirm this information.
European authorities continue to report and respond to aerial violations in European airspace.
On November 9, Lithuanian authorities announced that they had temporarily closed Vilnius Airport on the night of November 8-9 after they spotted an unspecified number of balloons flying towards the airport from Belarusian airspace.
The Lithuanian Border Guard Service closed the border with Belarus indefinitely on November 26 October in response to increased Belarusian balloon violations that have continued since October 26.
ISW continues to assess that Belarus is a de facto ally of Russia in the war in Ukraine.
Thus, Belarusian incursions into NATO airspace are part of Russia's broader "Phase Zero" efforts - Russia's broader phase of creating information and psychological conditions - in preparation for a possible war between NATO and Russia in the future.
UK Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton told the BBC on 9 November that the UK was sending military personnel and equipment to Belgium following a series of repeated incursions by unidentified drones into Belgian airspace near critical infrastructure between 31 October and 6 November.
The BBC noted that the UK was likely sending elements of the Royal Air Force's (RAF) 2 Force Protection Squadron to support the Belgian army.
ISW reported on 7 November that German troops had also arrived in Belgium to assist the Belgian army in implementing unspecified measures to detect and defend against drones.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is increasingly engaging in covert and overt attacks on Europe and that the ongoing violations of Russian airspace and unconventional activity are likely part of the "Phase Zero" effort.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continue their campaigns to cut off movement towards Pokrovsk, with the pace of the Russian advance in and around Pokrovsk remaining temporarily slowed.
ISW has observed no evidence to suggest that Russian forces made an additional advance towards Pokrovsk on 9 November.
This is consistent with recent Ukrainian reports that Russian forces have slowed their ground operations towards Pokrovsk in order to expand their logistics and bring reinforcements to the southern part of Pokrovsk.
A source purportedly connected to Ukrainian military intelligence reported on 8 November that Russian forces are in most areas of Pokrovsk but are unable to surround the city because the Russian command is only conducting penetration missions into and through Pokrovsk from the southern part of the city.
The source said that Russian forces are bringing mortar teams and additional drone operators into Pokrovsk to intensify their attacks on Ukrainian ground defense lines on the front.