"This will only please Putin, who wants to bring back the Iron Curtain," says an expert regarding Germany's measures against Russia, announced in response to the attempted bombing at Leipzig airport. Here are more expert opinions.
The practical impact of Germany's latest measures against Russia will most likely be limited, says Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin, who believes that Berlin's reaction is largely symbolic. However, Germany's decision to publicly blame Moscow for the attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport on August 4 reflects a growing willingness to respond appropriately to Russian President Vladimir Putin and what Berlin perceives as hostile actions on its territory.
Putin can only be stopped by tough action
"This will only please Putin. In the end, he is restoring the “Iron Curtain“ between Russia and other countries. And now he is getting help from the other side,“ Oreshkin told DW. “Putin is a man who cannot be stopped by anything other than escalation and strict restrictions.“
Berlin's decision to close the Russian consulate in Bonn, terminate the contract for the cultural center in Berlin and tighten controls on the entry of Russian citizens into Germany is not enough, says Boris Bondarev, a former diplomat who worked at Russia's permanent mission to the United Nations in Geneva. Bondarev, who resigned in 2022 over Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, said that reducing staff and limiting diplomatic activities could somewhat hinder Russian actions in Germany, but would not fundamentally change Moscow's strategic plans.
“I'm not sure that this will be something that will make Russia think twice,“ he says. “Unless other, more coordinated steps are taken at the EU level, they will not stop the provocations. At most, they will force them to coordinate their actions a little differently and look for more professional agents.“ Both experts, however, believe that Germany's measures could have an effect, even if they fail to deter Moscow.
How will Russia respond?
Putin described Germany's reaction as “another mistake, and a serious one“, and the Kremlin said that Russia would respond “in kind”. German security expert Wolfgang Richter said that the risk of escalation had increased compared to the first years of the war between Russia and Ukraine, but added that the next phase of the confrontation between Berlin and Moscow would likely remain in the realm of diplomacy. Moscow has already announced that it will close the “Goethe Institute“. "I would not completely rule out the possibility of escalating their actions by taking more serious measures - for example, limiting the number of diplomats at the German embassy in Moscow."
The dispute over cultural organizations such as the Goethe Institute and the Russian House in Berlin also reflects the way Moscow and Western governments perceive their role. The Goethe Institute, founded in 1951 to promote the German language and culture abroad, is viewed by Moscow through the prism of broader Russian distrust of Western institutions, Oreshkin said. The expert believes that the Kremlin is inclined to assume that such organizations serve intelligence purposes, as it projects the worldview of its security services onto Western structures.
“The Russian way of thinking in the security services assumes that all Western institutions are organized in exactly the same way. This symmetrical picture is deeply flawed“, he says. Oreshkin also argues that the Kremlin is unlikely to escalate the conflict beyond the level of diplomacy and cultural institutions. “To launch a missile strike - this is something that Putin does not have the courage to do. And all these acts of sabotage and subversion, as well as support for alternative political movements such as the “Alternative for Germany”, already pursue the same goal, the expert says. “That is why I do not think Putin can increase tensions much more. In fact, he can escalate the rhetoric, and he is doing just that.
Action needed against "shadow fleet"
Announcing the measures on Monday, German Foreign Minister Johann Waddefull told reporters that the EU would continue to work on additional sanctions "in the coming weeks". This includes tougher measures against the so-called Russian "shadow fleet". Russian authorities have repeatedly warned that attempts to detain or seize Russian-linked ships accused of circumventing fuel sanctions would be viewed as hostile acts.
Oreshkin says that if Europe really wants to put pressure on the Kremlin, it would be more effective to target the financial flows behind the "shadow fleet". But he points to a serious obstacle: European governments are limited by their own legal frameworks, such as maritime law, which guarantees freedom of navigation.
But security expert Richter sees a broader risk. Pressing against the "shadow fleet" could increase the likelihood of incidents at sea, he tells DW. "And that, of course, would mean another escalation." For Richter, the answer lies in both sides recognizing the risks involved. "The situation has become more tense and it is high time to have a conversation," he says. Without communication between the parties, the expert warns, any actions could be misinterpreted and cause further escalation.