Russia has increased its production of shells to such an extent that it is "practically preparing for its next war", warned the Estonian intelligence service, quoted by the "Financial Times" newspaper at a time when the conflict between the Kremlin and Ukraine is approaching its fourth anniversary, BTA reported.
In 2025, Russian factories produced over 7 million shells, mortar shells and rockets, according to Estonian estimates. In 2024, shells and rockets were produced. This figure represents a 17-fold increase in production compared to the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Most of the recent increase in production has been due to the construction of entirely new production facilities.
Thanks to the additional significant import of ammunition from North Korea (half of all ammunition fired by Russia into Ukraine in the past six months), the Russian armed forces have made significant progress in replenishing depleted stocks.
"For the Kremlin, maintaining such stocks is almost certainly a critically important element in planning for potential future conflicts," the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service wrote in its annual report, which was published yesterday.
The Estonian intelligence agency is considered one of the most capable in collecting classified information on Russia, which the Baltic state sees as its main strategic adversary, the "Financial Times" notes.
Russia is making progress in military production despite a rapidly weakening economy and growing concerns in the country about social impact of the conflict.
There are also signs that the Kremlin is struggling to recruit soldiers for the war, and is increasingly turning to criminals, mercenaries and even retirees to fill its ranks. The death toll among the Russian armed forces remains extremely high - some Western military estimates put it at 10 times higher than that of Ukraine.
The head of Estonian intelligence, Kaupo Rosin, said his officials did not believe Putin intended to attack NATO in the near future, but warned that the Kremlin still believes it is in an existential struggle with the alliance.
With no prospects for a breakthrough on the battlefield, Russia has in recent months shifted its focus to intelligence operations and influence campaigns, in particular efforts to deepen the rift between the United States and European countries, the intelligence agency said. The Kremlin is also taking advantage of the peace talks between Washington and Moscow, the report said. "Russian state institutions have received instructions from the Kremlin to demonstrate openness and readiness for cooperation with the United States", according to the Estonian service, which is "a trick". In this regard, the Kremlin has tried to offer the White House a number of economic and business opportunities as bait. "In the economic sphere, Russia is willing to offer cooperation and hopes to gain in two ways: first, by bringing the interests of the United States and Russia closer together; second, by widening what Moscow perceives as existing differences between the United States and Europe", the Estonian service said.
"Russia sets long-term operational goals in its war against Ukraine. This confirms that the recent intensification of the rhetoric of peace talks is simply a tactic to buy time", according to the report. "Moscow has no intention of ending the war until it achieves its goals or favorable conditions arise," the document added.
Following US President Donald Trump's stance on Greenland, sources say Russia is even considering trying to push Washington towards some kind of Arctic pact that would, at least on the surface, exclude China from the region.