Will the regime in Iran fall after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? The military strikes by the US and Israel aimed precisely at this. However, experts doubt it and believe that the attacks could have the exact opposite effect.
After it became clear that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as leading military personnel, were killed in the air strikes, the main question is: can regime change be expected in Tehran?
US President Donald Trump announced regime change in Tehran as the goal of the “large-scale military operation“ - along with the destruction of Iran's missile launch capabilities, the destruction of its naval forces and guarantees that the country will not acquire nuclear weapons.
Without the Iranian population, regime change will not be possible
Most observers, historians and Middle East experts doubt that regime change will be achieved through air strikes alone, ARD writes. The German public media quoted security expert Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, as saying: “Air strikes can destroy buildings and weaken the current leadership. But without the support of the people in the country who are willing to support Trump’s goal of overthrowing the current administration, there will be no lasting change in power.”
Do the attacks weaken Iran domestically?
Beyond the airstrikes, the question of how the United States and Israel could support the opposition forces remains entirely open. Despite all the assurances that help is now available, they remain largely powerless in the face of the brutally repressive regime in Tehran.
The airstrikes killed Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Pakpour, as well as National Defense Council Chairman Ali Shamkhani, who died in the US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran. This has significantly weakened the positions and combat capabilities of the army and the National Guard to attack targets abroad, but it is not certain that it will stop them from violently and bloodyly suppressing protests, as they did in December and January.
CIA: Attacks Could Empower Hardliners
In the context of recent events, it is not ruled out that air strikes against military targets could weaken the state leadership in Iran and encourage opponents of the regime to take to the streets again. But it is not ruled out that the opposite is true - it is even more likely. Namely, that attacks by Israel and the United States could damage the legitimacy of any protest. The regime could further accuse its opponents of external enemies behind their actions.
Another scenario is conceivable: the massive air strikes could force the people of Iran, albeit reluctantly, to stand behind the interim leaders and the regime, the German public media outlet points out.
A current analysis by the US foreign intelligence agency, the CIA, assumes that the attacks will rather strengthen hardliners in the ranks of the Revolutionary Guard. And that they could fill the gaps that have been created by the removal of important figures in the regime.
"Strong resistance and high risk of escalation"
Gerlinde Greutel, an expert on security strategies at the University of Regensburg, emphasizes that the regime will certainly put up fierce resistance in its attempt to survive. She fears that Iran will rely not only on direct retaliatory strikes, but also on closing the Strait of Hormuz and on further attacks, for example by terrorist groups supporting Tehran in the region. If it comes to that, "a really dangerous conflict with great risks of escalation can be expected," Greutel told the German public media.
There are no clear statements on how long the attacks will last, ARD also points out. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is talking about many days. From today's perspective, a return to the negotiating table is not ruled out. But again, from today's perspective, an escalation that will also affect other countries in the Middle East seems the most likely scenario. The expectation that the attacks will trigger a regime change in Tehran remains a very risky bet.