Mark Rutte has a new plan to prevent Donald Trump from turning his back on NATO: to promise new defense contracts that are beneficial to the US, writes the European editorial office of Politico, quoted by Focus.
Defense production will be a priority topic during the meeting of NATO foreign ministers in the southern Swedish city of Helsingborg on Friday.
In recent weeks, the NATO secretary general has led a campaign to dramatically increase defense production and deals as he tries to make the July summit of alliance leaders in Ankara a success, three senior NATO diplomats said. The aim is to overcome a real European deficit, they say, but also to make economic arguments that resonate with Trump.
“I think it is very good that Rutte is emphasizing this in Ankara, so that we can have common standards, better interoperability and produce more and cheaper”, said Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard. "We need to continue to trade and produce weapons together, and the United States has some unique capabilities," she said.
Rutte's plan is "good news for the United States too," another diplomat said.
But any effort to deeply engage the alliance in defense deals is likely to clash with the EU, which has presented legislative proposals and billions in loans to prioritize the development of the bloc's own defense industry.
The new strategy reflects the difficulties Rutte faces in finding a unifying theme for an otherwise strained alliance. This month, Trump surprised Germany and Poland by announcing troop cuts. The allies are also struggling to agree on new ways to increase aid to Ukraine and are divided on whether NATO could play a role in opening the Strait of Hormuz.
The focus on industry “makes sense to distract from differences in other areas,” said Gerlinde Niehus, a former longtime NATO official.
Deal or no deal
At the heart of Rutte’s strategy is presenting commitments and real evidence of defense spending at the talks in Ankara.
Publicly, Rutte has raised the issue several times and urged industry to increase production – whether contracts are signed or not.
“Trade companies are there to make sure that when there is a business opportunity, you take it – and there is a huge business opportunity right now,” he said in Sweden on Thursday. "You will see in Ankara... that is the main issue that will be discussed."
Privately, he has been pressing European allies to present evidence of increased production and industrial contracts at the July summit, a fourth senior NATO diplomat said. "Rutte has been telling allies: whatever you have in the pipeline, please bring it to Ankara," they said.
That includes promoting joint ventures with American defense firms and more U.S. arms sales, according to two senior NATO diplomats. Increasing production is also likely to be "a huge part" of the summit declaration, the second senior diplomat said.
The declaration will be accompanied by agreements that NATO has not yet formally announced, according to a person familiar with the matter, including a decision to replace its aging fleet of Boeing 707 AWACS aircraft with Saab's GlobalEye reconnaissance aircraft.
Separately, the summit will present a revised version of the 2013 NATO Industry Engagement Framework, which governs its relationship with defense firms and could include proposals such as integrating startups into NATO exercises.
But implementing Rutte's plan to curry favor with Trump will not be easy, as the NATO secretary general has few tools with which to actually influence industrial production, said Becca Wasser, a defense expert at Bloomberg Economics.
Arms purchases are under national control, and the alliance can do little more than send a “search signal”, she added. But that doesn't work for smaller defense firms that can't invest in production lines without contracts.
Any mention of joint ventures could also backfire, as such agreements are often held up by slow licensing procedures in Europe and by U.S. wariness of giving up control over technology and intellectual property, she added.
Any pressure on European allies to buy more from the US is also likely to lead to a rift with the EU. Brussels has been adamant about giving European defence firms priority in the programmes it funds.
"The US has not been particularly reliable and [European] strategic autonomy is gaining momentum," said one EU diplomat, adding that "we are going to spend a lot on our defence", so the bloc's companies should see a benefit in that.