Russia and Belarus are likely trying to justify the future use of Belarusian territory for drone strikes against Ukraine. This is stated in a new analysis by the “Institute for the Study of War“ (ISW), reports News.bg.
The assessment was prompted by statements by the Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Lieutenant General Alexander Volfovich, who on May 26 said that Belarusian forces had registered 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the border with Belarus in just one week.
According to him, some of these cases were targeted attacks on Belarusian border infrastructure.
The statements come against the backdrop of warnings from Ukrainian representatives that Moscow is pressuring Minsk to take action against Ukraine or against a NATO country.
However, ISW emphasizes that the likelihood of Belarus launching a ground invasion of Ukraine remains very small. Analysts note that there is no evidence of a concentration of Belarusian forces on the border on a scale that would allow such an operation.
According to the institute, Russia also does not have the necessary reserves to support a possible Belarusian offensive.
Instead, Moscow may use the allegations of Ukrainian drones in Belarusian airspace as a justification for “retaliatory“ strikes from Belarusian territory.
Such a scenario would allow Russian forces to more effectively attack logistical and transport routes in Western and Northwestern Ukraine. The analysis indicates that launching drones from Belarus would allow for more precise strikes on key communication lines, including the M-06 highway and the railway links between Poland and Ukraine.
According to ISW, this would increase the effectiveness of “Shahed“ drones and “Molniya“, especially against moving targets.
Ukrainian officials have already claimed that a Russian drone operator based in Belarus attacked a Ukrainian freight train near Korosten in Zhytomyr region in December 2025.
Analysts believe that the latest statements by the Belarusian authorities are part of Russia's efforts to prepare the information environment for the wider use of Belarus in the war.
The report also draws attention to the conflicting signals from Russian officials about possible strikes on Kiev.
The chairman of the defense committee in the Russian Duma, Andrey Kartapolov, said that the parliament and the presidential administration of Ukraine are not “the real decision-making centers“, commenting on the threats of the Russian Foreign Ministry to systematically strike Ukrainian sites in the capital.
Meanwhile, deputy Anatoly Wasserman stated that Russia could “liquidate” Ukraine by November 2026, but according to him, Moscow is in no hurry to do so.
ISW also notes that Russia is having difficulty defending itself against increased Ukrainian drone strikes deep into its territory.
According to the analysis, Ukrainian forces have significantly increased the frequency and scope of long-range drone attacks since March 2026, which has put Russian air defenses under strain.
Against this backdrop, Russian authorities temporarily closed the airport in Kaliningrad due to a suspected drone threat. Local media reported that the drone warning system in the region was activated for the first time.
So far, Russian authorities have not specified what exactly caused the alarm.