Foreign policy analyst Paul Goble, a former special adviser to the US State Department and a CIA analyst, believes that the Russian drone incursion into Romania was a deliberate provocation designed to test NATO unity and put pressure on Moldova, digi24 reports, quoted by Focus.
Goble notes that Russia's denial was predictable because Moscow wins when allies discuss responsibilities instead of reacting collectively. Moreover, the analyst is convinced that such provocations are approved in advance by Putin.
Goble pointed out to the Kyiv Post that Putin's public denial of Russian interference is a predictable tactic designed to delay Western decision-making.
''You would expect Mr. Putin to deny this because he has something to gain by people asking questions about it, rather than uniting against what is an act of aggression against a NATO country. I am absolutely sure that Putin approved the idea,'' the analyst points out.
Putin's alibi in Astana
Putin tried to shift the blame to Ukraine, suggesting that the drone that hit an apartment building in Galati deviated from its course due to a technical malfunction and was probably Ukrainian.
''Who in Romania says that this is a Russian drone?“, Putin asked from Kazakhstan, when asked about the incident. "No one can say what the origin of this or that drone is until an inspection is carried out," he said during a visit to Kazakhstan.
He suggested that Bucharest hand over the remains of the drone for a Russian investigation.
Goble rejected Putin's thesis about Kiev's guilt, saying that the evidence speaks for itself.
"So I'm not surprised that Putin says this." From what the Romanians who examined the drone said, it is quite clear that it could not have come from anywhere else."
Romanian military authorities and radar data confirmed that the drone came directly from Russia through the occupied territories. Romanian investigators and President Nikusor Dan, however, are adamant that the remains belong to a Russian drone, the ''Geran-2''.
The Romanian president called an emergency meeting of the Supreme Council for National Defense (CSAT) and declared the incident the most serious on Romanian territory to date. In response, Romania also declared the Russian Consul General in Constanta persona non grata and ordered the complete closure of the Russian consulate in Constanta. Although Dan clarified yesterday that the drone entered Romania after a kinetic strike by Ukrainian air defenses (which rules out a direct Russian invasion), Goble emphasizes that the Kremlin is knowingly taking these risks. The reason for this is likely related to Russia's concerns about the Republic of Moldova, whose pro-Western government is establishing close ties with Bucharest and Ukraine.
''Moscow is using border friction as a tool of intimidation. The Kremlin is deliberately using such incursions, the analyst is categorical.
''Moscow is using border tensions as a tool to put pressure on the pro-Western government in Moldova, which is currently integrating more closely with Romania and the EU,'', he added.
Despite the sharp reaction of Bucharest and the closure of the Russian consulate in Constanta, the Romanian Ministry of Defense reassured citizens that the situation is under control and the country is not the subject of a deliberate military attack, but is suffering the indirect effects of the conflict developing near the border.
For NATO, the incident highlights a key challenge: to respond to hybrid threats without falling into the public division that Putin relies on, the expert concludes.