Konstantinovka has become the latest city in Donbass to be fiercely fought over in Russia's war against Ukraine. The city, which is located 60 km north of Donetsk, could become the next major trophy for the Russian army after Pokrovsk, which it captured after months of fighting.
At the beginning of the war in February 2022, Konstantinovka had a population of almost 80,000. The city was a kind of southern gateway to the Kramatorsk-Konstantinovka agglomeration, which stretches dozens of kilometers to the north. After Russia occupied Donetsk in 2014, the northern management and logistics center of the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donetsk Oblast was formed in this agglomeration. For years, Konstantinovka was the terminus of the "Intercity" trains, which once connected Kiev and Kharkiv with Donetsk.
The exact number of residents remaining in Konstantinovka is unknown. The media mentions the figure of 2,000 people. The city is completely cut off from humanitarian aid and rescue services.
There is no confirmation of the capture of Konstantinovka by Russia
Some military experts predicted the fall of the city as early as June. In early July, the Kremlin said that Konstantinovka had been finally captured by the Russian army. But there is no independent confirmation. Ukraine immediately rejected Moscow's statement, and President Volodymyr Zelensky even suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in the city. "If Konstantinovka is under Russian control, then Putin will probably have no problem meeting with me there and finding diplomatic solutions to end the war," the Ukrainian head of state said.
The report by the American Institute for the Study of War of July 13 only mentions "infiltration operations" of Russian troops within the city. In addition, analysts cite numerous materials from Russian sources, which show the movement of Russian troops in Konstantinovka. However, as the report notes, these materials were probably created with the help of artificial intelligence. Even the head of the self-proclaimed DPR Denis Pushilin recently admitted that fighting in Konstantinovka continues and that there are still Ukrainian troops there.
The situation on the battlefield in Konstantinovka is complicated
Ukrainian experts also deny that Russia has already captured the city. The coordinator of the group "Information Resistance" Alexander Kovalenko describes the situation in the city as extremely complex. According to him, Russian troops are moving in different areas of Konstantinovka, but the success of these movements is different: in the west they are more successful than in the east.
"The complexity is that they often move in small groups, and sometimes individually. This distracts the attention of the Ukrainian defenders," he told DW. Kovalenko does not believe that the Russians will be able to capture Konstantinovka by the end of July and predicts that the fighting for the city could continue for months.
Austrian military expert Markus Reisner is also skeptical of Russian statements about the capture of Konstantinovka. He draws attention to the photos and videos with raised Russian flags distributed on social networks. Russia uses them as evidence of its control over the city. "But the flag raised in an area by itself means nothing - it says nothing about whether the city has been taken or not. To get there, the city must be reliably taken under control by the Russian infantry", Reisner told DW.
Expert: Russia's positions in Konstantinovka are more advantageous
The fact is that fighting is going on for Konstantinovka and Russian troops are advancing, Markus Reisner. Therefore, the main question now is whether the Ukrainian defense forces will be able to continue supplying their servicemen in the city with food and ammunition to continue the fighting - including with the help of drones.
"If the Russians manage to cut off the supply of the Ukrainian military, the city will no longer be able to be held", says the expert, defining the Ukrainian side's supply problems as "much more serious than those of the Russians, who relatively stably supply their units".
If the situation does not change radically in Ukraine's favor - for example, thanks to successful counteroffensives, Konstantinovka will suffer the fate of other cities that Russia managed to capture earlier, Reisner believes. He gives examples of Lisichansk, Bakhmut, Toretsk, Ugledar and Pokrovsk.
The door to Ukraine's last bastion in Donbas
If Konstantinovka does indeed suffer the same fate, it will become the first city in the agglomeration stretching north to Druzhovka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk - the last bastion of the Ukrainian army in the Donetsk region - to fall under Russian control.
According to Reisner, this would be a tactical success for the Russians, which ultimately opens up operational opportunities. "After all, Russia's goal is to conquer the entire Donbass," he reminds us.
"If the Russians manage to conquer Konstantinovka, they will try to move further - to other settlements in the agglomeration," says Alexander Kovalenko of "Information Resistance".
According to him, however, this will not significantly affect the overall balance of power in the war. "If this had happened in 2022, it would have been a disaster for Ukraine. Now it is no longer like that." According to Kovalenko, Russia is now trying to present the fighting for the city as an "epic event", thus distracting attention from the "logistical lockdown" that Ukraine is creating for it, striking at the supply chains of Russian troops in the southern direction.
The expert is convinced that if Konstantinovka is captured, the Ukrainian military will try to extend the tactics of the logistical lockdown to Donbass. "As a result, the Russians may find themselves in a situation where they will not be able to use their available forces for an offensive due to the disruption of logistical connections", Kovalenko argues.
Markus Reisner, in turn, points out that Ukraine's goal is to get Russia to the negotiating table by the fall, "because then winter will begin with heavy winter air strikes". Reisner believes that Ukraine's success depends largely on the United States, which provides Ukraine with intelligence and artificial intelligence capabilities to strike targets on Russian territory. "If Ukrainian strikes become even more successful, in the end the Russians can really be forced to sit at the negotiating table."
Author: Danilo Bilek