The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to claim that Russian forces have surrounded Dobropole in the Donetsk region, but an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) finds no evidence of such a development. According to the institute, the Russian claims exaggerate the scale of what has been achieved on the battlefield and present the Ukrainian defense as being in collapse, reports News.bg.
On September 24, the Russian military department published a map according to which the “Center“ group has surrounded Ukrainian forces around Dobropole. Moscow also claims that the capture of the city would threaten key Ukrainian supply routes from the Dnipropetrovsk region to the so-called. „belt of fortresses“.
However, ISW points out that the Russian positions shown on the map do not correspond to the observed military presence in the area, especially north of Dobropole. According to the analysis, there has been no confirmed data in recent weeks of a significant Russian advance towards or immediately around the city.
The institute estimates that the nearest confirmed Russian position is located about 10.2 kilometers southeast of the outskirts of Dobropole. On September 19 and 20, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were registered east and northeast of the city, but according to ISW, there is no evidence that they were able to establish permanent positions.
Ukrainian military representatives also reject claims of encirclement. ISW notes that, according to Ukrainian sources, Russian forces have not achieved a significant advance in the direction of Dobropole.
According to the institute, the repeated Russian claims about the encirclement of the city also have a broader informational context. ISW connects them with an attempt to divert attention from Ukrainian actions in the area north of Liman, where in recent months Ukrainian forces have eliminated a Russian salient on the front. This, according to the analysis, may have forced the Russian command to reconsider its plans for a larger-scale offensive towards Liman and Dobropole and for covering the Ukrainian “fortress belt“ in the Donetsk region.
At the same time, ISW reports that Russian forces continue their offensive actions in the direction of Dobropole, but as of September 24, there has been no confirmed significant territorial movement that would indicate a real encirclement of the city.